Signal No. 2 was raised for the first time due to Typhoon Kiko (Chanthu), which continued to move toward extreme Northern Luzon on Thursday evening, September 9.

Kiko was already 435 kilometers east of Baler, Aurora, or 370 kilometers east of Casiguran, Aurora, still moving west northwest at 20 kilometers per hour (km/h).

The Philippine Atmospheric, Geophysical, and Astronomical Services Administration (PAGASA) also said in its 11 pm bulletin on Thursday that Kiko still has maximum sustained winds of 195 km/h and gustiness of up to 240 km/h.

This is the latest list of areas under tropical cyclone wind signals:

Signal No. 2 (damaging gale-force to storm-force winds)

• northeastern part of mainland Cagayan (Santa Ana, Gonzaga, Santa Teresita, Lal-lo, Buguey, Gattaran, Baggao)
• eastern part of Babuyan Islands (Camiguin Island, Didicas Island, Pamuktan Island, and Babuyan Island)

Signal No. 1 (strong winds)

• Batanes
• rest of mainland Cagayan
• rest of Babuyan Islands
• northeastern part of Apayao (Luna, Pudtol, Flora, Santa Marcela)
• eastern part of Isabela (Divilacan, Palanan, Maconacon, San Pablo, Santa Maria, Tumauini, Cabagan, San Mariano, Ilagan City, Dinapigue)

Signal No. 4 remains the highest possible tropical cyclone wind signal for Kiko.

The typhoon will also bring rain starting Friday afternoon, September 10, until Saturday evening, September 11, which may trigger scattered to widespread floods and landslides. Here is what to expect during that period:

Heavy to intense rain, with at times torrential rain

• Cagayan including Babuyan Islands
• Batanes
• northern part of Isabela

Moderate to heavy rain, with at times intense rain

• rest of Isabela
• northern part of Aurora
• Ilocos Norte
• Apayao

PAGASA also warned that there is a moderate risk of storm surges 1 to 2 meters high occurring on Friday and Saturday.

It added that “rising seawater along with the high waves from the shoreline moving inland may cause flooding in the low-lying coastal localities of Batanes, Cagayan including Babuyan Islands, and Isabela.”

Sea travel is dangerous on Friday as Kiko approaches.

Rough to high seas (waves 2.5 to 6 meters high)

Travel risky for all vessels, mariners advised to remain in port

• seaboards of areas under Signal Nos. 1 and 2

Moderate to rough seas (waves 1.2 to 3 meters high)

Travel risky for small vessels, mariners advised to avoid navigation

• eastern seaboards of Central Luzon and Southern Luzon

PAGASA sees Kiko moving northwest on Friday toward the Babuyan Islands-Batanes area.

The typhoon is expected to pass very close to the northeastern part of Cagayan on Friday afternoon or evening. Then it may cross the vicinity of Babuyan Islands and Batanes or pass within their coastal waters from Friday evening until Saturday afternoon.

PAGASA reiterated, however, that it is not ruling out the possibility of Kiko making landfall in the northeastern part of Cagayan, “considering the generally west northwestward movement of the typhoon over the past 12 hours.”

After passing through the vicinity of extreme Northern Luzon, Kiko may turn north on Sunday, September 12, and make landfall in the eastern part of Taiwan or pass within its coastal waters. Taiwan is still within the Philippine Area of Responsibility (PAR).

Kiko could exit PAR on Sunday afternoon or evening. Outside PAR, it will turn north northeast over the East China Sea.

In terms of intensity, PAGASA now sees Kiko slightly weakening to around 185 km/h within the next 12 hours, or the first half of Friday, and maintaining that intensity as it moves over extreme Northern Luzon.

It may weaken further on Sunday as it interacts with Taiwan’s rugged terrain.

But PAGASA stressed that Kiko “will remain a very strong typhoon throughout its passage of extreme Northern Luzon and will remain within typhoon category throughout the forecast period.” (READ: FAST FACTS: Tropical cyclones, rainfall advisories)

PAGASA

Meanwhile, Jolina (Conson) left PAR as a tropical storm at 6:15 pm on Thursday, then re-intensified into a severe tropical storm.

As of late Thursday evening, Jolina was already 605 kilometers west of Dagupan City, Pangasinan, still moving west over the West Philippine Sea at 30 km/h.

Jolina’s maximum sustained winds increased from 85 km/h to 95 km/h, while its gustiness went up from 105 km/h to 115 km/h. It is likely to re-intensify further into a typhoon on Friday.

Even though Jolina is already outside PAR, it continues to enhance the southwest monsoon or hanging habagat. Kiko is also enhancing the southwest monsoon.

PAGASA warned of moderate to heavy rain and occasional gusty winds due to the monsoon in the following areas on Friday:

• Batangas
• Cavite
• Palawan
• Occidental Mindoro
• Western Visayas

There may be flash floods and landslides, added the state weather bureau.

Jolina and the enhanced southwest monsoon will also continue to affect coastal waters on Friday.

Rough to very rough seas (waves 2.8 to 4.5 meters high)

Travel risky for small vessels, inexperienced mariners should seek safe harbor

• western seaboards of Palawan including Calamian and Kalayaan Islands

Moderate to rough seas (waves 1.2 to 3.1 meters high)

Small vessels must take precautionary measures, inexperienced mariners should avoid navigation

• remaining western seaboards of Luzon

Jolina had developed inside PAR last Monday, September 6. It made landfall in the Philippines nine times, causing floods and landslides.

Monday, September 6 (as a typhoon)

• Hernani, Eastern Samar – 10 pm

Tuesday, September 7 (as a typhoon)

• Daram, Samar – 2 am
• Santo Niño, Samar – 3:40 am
• Almagro, Samar – 6:30 am
• Tagapul-an, Samar – 7:50 am
• Dimasalang, Masbate – 10 am

Wednesday, September 8 (as a severe tropical storm)

• Torrijos, Marinduque – 12:50 am
• San Juan, Batangas – 9 am

Wednesday, September 8 (as a tropical storm)

• Mariveles, Bataan – 5:30 pm

The National Disaster Risk Reduction and Management Council said in a report issued at 12 pm on Thursday that at least three people have been reported dead due to Jolina. One of those deaths is confirmed, while the other two are still being validated.

PAGASA

Jolina was the Philippines’ 10th tropical cyclone for 2021, while Kiko is the 11th.

An average of 20 tropical cyclones form within or enter PAR each year. (READ: LIST: PAGASA’s names for tropical cyclones in 2021)

For the next six months, these are PAGASA’s estimates for the number of tropical cyclones inside PAR:

2021

• September – 2 or 3
• October – 2 or 3
• November – 2 or 3
• December – 1 or 2

2022

• January – 0 or 1
• February – 0 or 1

– Rappler.com