The municipality of Santa Ana in Cagayan was placed under Signal No. 3 before dawn on Friday, September 10, due to Typhoon Kiko (Chanthu).

In its 5 am bulletin on Friday, the Philippine Atmospheric, Geophysical, and Astronomical Services Administration (PAGASA) said Kiko was already 280 kilometers east northeast of Casiguran, Aurora.

The typhoon was moving west northwest at 20 kilometers per hour, slightly slower than its speed of 25 km/h at 2 am on Friday.

As PAGASA earlier predicted, Kiko also slightly weakened, with its maximum sustained winds decreasing from 195 km/h to 185 km/h and its gustiness down from 240 km/h to 230 km/h.

Note, however, that Kiko remains a powerful typhoon. It is expected to maintain its intensity until it moves past extreme Northern Luzon.

Below are the areas where tropical cyclone wind signals are raised as of 5 am on Friday.

Signal No. 3 (destructive typhoon-force winds)

• extreme northeastern part of Cagayan (Santa Ana)

Signal No. 2 (damaging gale-force to storm-force winds)

• Batanes
• Babuyan Islands
• remaining eastern part of mainland Cagayan (Aparri, Camalaniugan, Lal-lo, Gattaran, Baggao, Peñablanca, Buguey, Santa Teresita, Gonzaga)
• northeastern part of Isabela (San Pablo, Maconacon, Divilacan, Palanan)

Signal No. 1 (strong winds)

• rest of mainland Cagayan
• northeastern part of Ilocos Norte (Pagudpud, Adams, Dumalneg, Bangui, Vintar, Carasi)
• Apayao
• eastern part of Kalinga (Tabuk City, Pinukpuk, Rizal)
• northwestern and southeastern parts of Isabela (Santa Maria, Quezon, Mallig, Roxas, San Manuel, Cabatuan, Aurora, Cauayan City, Angadanan, San Guillermo, Dinapigue, San Mariano, Cabagan, Santo Tomas, Delfin Albano, Tumauini, Quirino, Burgos, Gamu, Ilagan City, Luna, Reina Mercedes, Naguilian, Benito Soliven)
• northern part of Aurora (Dilasag, Casiguran)

Signal No. 4 remains the highest possible tropical cyclone wind signal for Kiko.

Rain from the typhoon is expected to hit Northern Luzon from Friday afternoon to Saturday evening, September 11. Areas to be affected must watch out for scattered to widespread floods and landslides.

Heavy to intense rain, with at times torrential rain

• Cagayan including Babuyan Islands
• Batanes
• northern part of Isabela

Moderate to heavy rain, with at times intense rain

• rest of Cagayan Valley
• Ilocos Region
• Cordillera Administrative Region
• northern and central parts of Aurora

PAGASA also warned that there is a moderate risk of storm surges 1 to 2 meters high occurring on Friday.

It added that “rising seawater along with the high waves from the shoreline moving inland may cause flooding in the low-lying coastal localities of Batanes, Cagayan including Babuyan Islands, and Isabela.”

It will be dangerous to travel by sea in certain seaboards affected by Kiko on Friday.

Rough to very high seas (waves 2.5 to 10 meters high)

Travel risky for all vessels, mariners advised to remain in port

• seaboards of areas under Signal Nos. 1, 2, and 3

Moderate to rough seas (waves 1.2 to 3 meters high)

Travel risky for small vessels, mariners advised to avoid navigation

• eastern seaboards of Central Luzon and Southern Luzon

Kiko is expected to pass over the coastal waters of the northeastern part of Cagayan on Friday afternoon or evening.

Then it may cross the vicinity of Babuyan Islands and Batanes or pass within their coastal waters from Friday evening until Saturday afternoon or evening.

But PAGASA maintained that “the possibility of landfall over the northeastern portion of Cagayan is not yet ruled out” and “the public is advised to continue monitoring for possible changes.”

After passing through the vicinity of extreme Northern Luzon, Kiko may head north for the rest of Saturday until Sunday afternoon, September 12, and make landfall in the eastern part of Taiwan or pass within its coastal waters. Taiwan is still within the Philippine Area of Responsibility (PAR).

Kiko may also weaken further starting Sunday as it interacts with Taiwan’s rugged terrain, but it will remain a typhoon.

Finally, Kiko could exit PAR on Sunday afternoon or evening. Outside PAR, it will turn north northeast over the East China Sea. (READ: FAST FACTS: Tropical cyclones, rainfall advisories)

PAGASA

PAGASA also warned that Kiko and Severe Tropical Storm Jolina (Conson), which left PAR on Thursday evening, September 9, will continue to enhance the southwest monsoon or hanging habagat. Jolina was last spotted 730 kilometers west of Dagupan City, Pangasinan, before dawn on Friday.

The enhanced southwest monsoon is affecting Central Luzon, Southern Luzon, and Western Visayas on Friday.

In particular, the following areas will experience monsoon rain:

• Zambales
• Bataan
• Cavite
• Batangas
• Occidental Mindoro
• Oriental Mindoro
• Romblon
• Palawan
• Western Visayas

Scattered rain showers and thunderstorms may also hit the rest of Luzon, including Metro Manila, due to the southwest monsoon.

Flash floods and landslides are possible during periods of moderate to heavy rain.

The southwest monsoon will bring occasional gusts to coastal and upland areas of the affected provinces and regions as well.

PAGASA also issued a gale warning for the western seaboards of Palawan, including Calamian and Kalayaan Islands, and Occidental Mindoro, including Lubang Islands. Waters will be rough to very rough, with waves 2.8 to 4.5 meters high.

Kiko is the Philippines’ 11th tropical cyclone for 2021.

An average of 20 tropical cyclones form within or enter PAR each year. (READ: LIST: PAGASA’s names for tropical cyclones in 2021)

For the next six months, these are PAGASA’s estimates for the number of tropical cyclones inside PAR:

2021

• September – 2 or 3
• October – 2 or 3
• November – 2 or 3
• December – 1 or 2

2022

• January – 0 or 1
• February – 0 or 1

– Rappler.com