The powerful Typhoon Kiko (Chanthu) spared mainland Cagayan province from landfall, as it was already moving over the waters northeast of the municipality of Santa Ana early Friday evening, September 10.

Kiko’s location was 190 kilometers east of Aparri, Cagayan, or 175 kilometers east southeast of Calayan, Cagayan, said the Philippine Atmospheric, Geophysical, and Astronomical Services Administration (PAGASA) in its 8 pm bulletin on Friday.

The typhoon was moving north northwest at 15 kilometers per hour (km/h).

“No mainland Cagayan landfall,” tweeted PAGASA Weather Specialist Ariel Rojas.

Kiko is projected to continue moving over the waters of northeastern Cagayan on Friday evening. Then it will pass over the coastal waters of Babuyan Islands and cross the vicinity of Batanes from Friday evening until Saturday afternoon, September 11.

Due to the typhoon’s size, however, its effects will still be felt even if it does not hit land.

At the moment, Kiko still has maximum sustained winds of 215 km/h and gustiness of up to 265 km/h.

But if Kiko’s maximum sustained winds exceed 220 km/h, it would be upgraded to a super typhoon. PAGASA is not ruling out this possibility. (READ: FAST FACTS: Tropical cyclones, rainfall advisories)

The southern part of Batanes has also been placed under Signal No. 4. Here are the areas under tropical cyclone wind signals as of 8 pm on Friday:

Signal No. 4 (very destructive typhoon-force winds)

• northeastern part of Babuyan Islands (Babuyan Island)
• southern part of Batanes (Basco, Mahatao, Uyugan, Ivana, Sabtang)

Signal No. 3 (destructive typhoon-force winds)

• extreme northeastern part of Cagayan (Santa Ana, Gonzaga)
• rest of Babuyan Islands
• rest of Batanes

Signal No. 2 (damaging gale-force to storm-force winds)

• northern, central, and eastern parts of mainland Cagayan (Aparri, Camalaniugan, Lal-lo, Gattaran, Baggao, Peñablanca, Buguey, Santa Teresita, Tuguegarao City, Iguig, Amulung, Alcala, Allacapan, Lasam, Ballesteros, Abulug)
• northeastern part of Isabela (San Pablo, Maconacon, Divilacan, Palanan)
• northeastern part of Apayao (Flora, Santa Marcela, Luna, Pudtol)

Signal No. 1 (strong winds)

• rest of mainland Cagayan
• eastern part of Ilocos Norte (Pagudpud, Adams, Dumalneg, Bangui, Vintar, Carasi, Nueva Era, Burgos, Pasuquin, Bacarra, Laoag City, Piddig, Solsona, Dingras, Sarrat, San Nicolas)
• rest of Apayao
• northern part of Kalinga (Balbalan, Pinukpuk, Tabuk City, Rizal)
• eastern part of Mountain Province (Paracelis)
• northeastern part of Abra (Tineg, Lacub, Malibcong)
• northwestern and southeastern parts of Isabela (Santa Maria, Quezon, Mallig, Roxas, San Manuel, Cabatuan, Aurora, Cauayan City, Angadanan, San Guillermo, Dinapigue, San Mariano, Cabagan, Santo Tomas, Delfin Albano, Tumauini, Quirino, Burgos, Gamu, Ilagan City, Luna, Reina Mercedes, Naguilian, Benito Soliven)
• northern part of Aurora (Dilasag, Casiguran)

If Kiko strengthens into a super typhoon, Signal No. 5 could be raised in some municipalities of Batanes and Babuyan Islands.

Meanwhile, PAGASA updated its rainfall forecast for the typhoon, covering the rest of Friday evening until Saturday evening. Scattered to widespread floods and landslides are still possible.

Heavy to intense rain, with at times torrential rain

• northeastern part of Cagayan including Babuyan Islands
• Batanes

Moderate to heavy rain, with at times intense rain

• rest of Cagayan Valley
• northern and central parts of Aurora
• northern part of Isabela
• Ilocos Region
• Cordillera Administrative Region

PAGASA also warned that there is a moderate risk of storm surges 1 to 2 meters high occurring within 24 hours.

It added that “rising seawater along with the high waves from the shoreline moving inland may cause flooding in the low-lying coastal localities of Batanes, Cagayan including Babuyan Islands, and Isabela.”

The state weather bureau also maintained its forecast for coastal waters.

Rough to phenomenal seas (waves 3 to 16 meters high)

Travel risky for all vessels, mariners advised to remain in port

• seaboards of areas under tropical cyclone wind signals

Moderate to rough seas (waves 1.2 to 3 meters high)

Travel risky for small vessels, mariners advised to avoid navigation

• eastern seaboards of Central Luzon and Southern Luzon

After passing through the vicinity of extreme Northern Luzon, Kiko may head north for the rest of Saturday until Sunday afternoon, September 12, and pass within Taiwan’s coastal waters. Taiwan is still within the Philippine Area of Responsibility (PAR).

Finally, Kiko might leave PAR on Sunday evening or early Monday morning, September 13. Once outside, it will turn north northeast over the East China Sea.

PAGASA

Kiko is also enhancing the southwest monsoon or hanging habagat, which is affecting Southern Luzon and Western Visayas.

Scattered rain showers and thunderstorms are expected in areas affected by the enhanced southwest monsoon. Floods and landslides are possible, too.

PAGASA added that there may be occasional gusts in coastal and upland localities of Southern Luzon and Western Visayas.

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Kiko is the Philippines’ 11th tropical cyclone for 2021.

An average of 20 tropical cyclones form within or enter PAR each year. (READ: LIST: PAGASA’s names for tropical cyclones in 2021)

For the next six months, these are PAGASA’s estimates for the number of tropical cyclones inside PAR:

2021

• September – 2 or 3
• October – 2 or 3
• November – 2 or 3
• December – 1 or 2

2022

• January – 0 or 1
• February – 0 or 1

– Rappler.com