COVID-19

IN CHARTS: 1 year later, the spread of COVID-19 in PH

Michael Bueza

This is AI generated summarization, which may have errors. For context, always refer to the full article.

IN CHARTS: 1 year later, the spread of COVID-19 in PH
The country saw rapidly rising infections in the first half of the past year, but it later slowed down, with occasional surges, especially after the holiday season
First of 2 parts

On January 30, 2020, the Department of Health (DOH) confirmed the first case of the coronavirus in the Philippines. Since then, over half a million more COVID-19 cases have been reported.

The virus placed many parts of the country under quarantine, and caused disruptions in social activities. More than 10,000 Filipinos lost their lives, while hundreds of thousands went through physical, mental, and economic hardships. Frontliners have risen to the occasion despite the risks.

The country saw rapidly rising infections in the first half of the past year, but it later slowed down, with occasional surges, especially after the holiday season. However, some problems in testing output and contact tracing still persist.

Fortunately, vaccines are now on the horizon, even as variants of the virus have emerged. The economy, while badly hit, is slowly opening up, with government-mandated health protocols in place.

Here’s a look at the spread of COVID-19 in the country over the last 12 months using publicly available data from the DOH. It also shows what we can learn as we continue to fight the coronavirus.

Spike, slowdown, surge

The Philippines’ COVID-19 cases first breached 100,000 on August 2, 2020, or a little over 6 months since the first case. 

The next 100,000 cases, however, took only 24 days to emerge: on August 26, confirmed cases reached 200,000. Contributing to this spike was the highest one-day increase reported so far, at 6,958 cases on August 10. Also, due to the fast pace of increase, the Philippines pulled ahead of Indonesia on August 6, becoming the Southeast Asian country with the most COVID-19 cases at the time.

Cases topped 300,000 exactly a month later, on September 26. Since then, the rise in total reported cases showed a slower trend. In mid-October, Indonesia surpassed the Philippines’ tally due to a bigger surge of cases. The Philippines breached the 400,000-mark in November, then the 500,000-mark in mid-January.

The wave of new cases in the first months of COVID-19 in the country first struck hard in Metro Manila, Cebu City, and surrounding areas.

Around half a year after the first case, or from August onwards, the virus spread to other metropolitan areas and soon to all provinces. The first case in Batanes – the last province to have a confirmed infection – was reported in late September.

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“Our handling of the pandemic in the early parts was not well-calibrated, because we were not well-prepared for it. But we have since improved a lot,” said Guido David, a fellow at independent research group Octa.

“Over the past several months, we have been able to prevent surges from happening…This is largely thanks to the efforts of not just the national and local governments, but also the media in their messaging and the people who comply with the protocols,” he added.

Here’s a timeline of maps showing new cases reported per “quarter” or 3-month period since January 30, 2020. (Click the play button to auto-play the animation, or click the navigation arrows to manually go through the maps.)

In the last months of 2020, as the holiday season approached, many experts warned that if health protocols were not strictly enforced and followed, especially during traditional Yuletide gatherings and events, cases might increase again. National authorities and local governments braced for this possibility.

A post-holiday uptick was indeed observed in January, but not as worse as expected. For instance, Octa in its January 25 report, noted that cases in Metro Manila for that month had “leveled off.”

On the other hand, the Cordillera Administrative Region (CAR), as well as some areas in the Cagayan Valley Region, took a hit. The situation became more alarming after the detection of a faster-spreading United Kingdom (UK) variant of COVID-19 in Mountain Province, as well as the confirmation of a local transmission of the variant in provincial capital Bontoc.

Cebu City, Cebu province, and the cities of Lapu-Lapu and Mandaue also saw fresh surges. Davao City had a sustained high number of new cases daily, too.

In light of these, the national government added CAR and retained Davao City and Davao del Norte in the list of the areas under general community quarantine (GCQ) for February. Metro Manila remained under GCQ as well. Meanwhile, Tuguegarao City in Cagayan extended its enhanced community quarantine (ECQ), the strictest lockdown, until February 3. 

David noted as of this writing that the situation in CAR and Cagayan Valley regions “is starting to improve.” He also pointed out that the actions in Mountain Province “is a demonstration of how the national and local governments quickly responded.”

Few deaths, but still many active cases

The Philippines has logged a low death rate among COVID-19 cases. For a long time, the country’s case fatality rate (CFR) has been at less than 2%. 

However, Peter Julian Cayton, associate professor at the University of the Philippines (UP) School of Statistics and a member of the UP COVID-19 pandemic team, expressed “slight alarm” at the slow climb of the CFR in recent days.

On January 25, the Philippines crossed the 2% CFR threshold for the first time since August 2020. As of this writing, the country’s CFR stands at 2.05%. This is already near the 2.16% global CFR, as measured by the World Health Organization (WHO) as of January 31.

There has also been an uptick in active cases in the last few weeks. After hitting the lowest-ever rate of active cases among confirmed infections on January 10, at 4.12%, it has since gone back to around 5%-7%. If not addressed, the rate of active cases might return to its levels in late 2020, when it was nearly 10%.

“We might not be expecting the numbers to go down to 0, because there will always be some cases like secondary transmission,” said David, but it’s important to keep the numbers at a manageable level. Doing so also helps in lessening the burden of hospitals and health facilities, he continued. 

In the chart below, see the different occupancy levels of COVID-19 dedicated beds per region over time in the past year.

Earlier this month, Cordillera reached a moderate level of occupancy for all beds, but reached a critical level among ICU or critical care beds. This has since gone down to safer levels after the DOH designated more beds for COVID-19 patients.

‘Balancing act’

David argued that the relatively low rates for deaths and active cases “came at a time when we were relaxing economic restrictions gradually.”

The government’s balancing act – between imposing lockdowns and resuming economic activities – “is an art, not an exact science,” said David. “Certainly, our economy is really affected, because [for instance] our SMEs (small and medium enterprises) have suffered a great deal, but at least our economy’s running while we’re managing the pandemic.”

Cayton pointed out that the pandemic is already affecting the government’s response to other types of public crises.

“Our perennial hazard with flooding and typhoons, it’s making the problem more difficult…The COVID-19 lockdowns are also interacting with how we manage non-human epidemics like African Swine Fever.”

Despite these, the figures on case counts show that the government’s responses and the public’s compliance to protocols have somehow helped manage the spread of the coronavirus. The country’s testing and contact tracing efforts, however, still need to catch up. (To be continued: Part 2 | The fight vs COVID-19 in PH continues)Rappler.com

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Michael Bueza

Michael is a data curator under Rappler's Tech Team. He works on data about elections, governance, and the budget. He also follows the Philippine pro wrestling scene and the WWE. Michael is also part of the Laffler Talk podcast trio.