Disaster Fact Checks

MISSING CONTEXT: 3 volcanoes will ‘possibly erupt’

Rappler.com

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MISSING CONTEXT: 3 volcanoes will ‘possibly erupt’
Taal Volcano, Kanlaon Volcano, and Mayon Volcano have been on Alert Level 1 for months. Alert Level 1 does not automatically mean an eruption will occur.
At a glance:
  • Claim: 3 volcanoes in the Philippines will possibly erupt.
  • Rating: MISSING CONTEXT
  • The facts: Taal Volcano, Kanlaon Volcano, and Mayon Volcano have been on Alert Level 1 for months. Alert Level 1 does not automatically mean an eruption will occur.
  • Why we fact-checked this: Several posts containing this claim were flagged by Facebook Claim Check, a tool that detects dubious content on the platform.
Complete details:

Several Facebook accounts and pages posted variations of a text post containing the claim that 3 volcanoes in the country will possibly erupt.

Some of these posts also include the text, “The Mayon Volcano is now [under level] 1 alert.”

MISSING CONTEXT 3 volcanoes will possibly erupt

Posts containing this claim were flagged by Facebook Claim Check, a tool that detects dubious content on the platform.

This claim is missing context. Taal Volcano, Kanlaon Volcano, and Mayon Volcano have been on Alert Level 1 for months. Alert Level 1 does not automatically mean an eruption will occur.

MISSING CONTEXT: 3 volcanoes will ‘possibly erupt’

Alert levels are raised according to different criteria for each volcano respectively, considering certain levels and indicators of volcanic activity. In general, Alert Level 1 means that the volcano is showing low level unrest or seismic activity, and Phivolcs recommends prohibiting entry into each respective Permanent Danger Zone. At this level, Phivolcs also warns of possible sudden steam-driven or phreatic explosions and other hazards.

Maria Antonia Bornas, chief of Phivolcs’ Volcano Monitoring and Eruption Prediction Division, explained that at Alert Level 1, it is difficult to determine the cause of unrest, whether it be hydrothermal, magmatic, or tectonic. She added that “unrest doesn’t equal an eruption.”

[Maraming] times talaga na nagse-step back, step down to 0 ‘yung Alert Level 1… without erupting at all,” Bornas told Rappler in a phone interview. (There are many times when volcanoes placed under Alert Level 1 step back, step down to 0 without erupting at all.)

Volcanoes can also be on Alert Level 1 for months before an explosion. For example, Taal Volcano was under Alert Level 1 for almost a year, from March 28, 2019 to January 12, 2020. On January 12, it was raised to Alert levels 2, 3, and 4, following conditions of increasing unrest including a phreatic eruption, a type of eruption which is difficult to predict. Taal Volcano’s status has since been lowered from Alert Level 2 to Alert Level 1, on March 19.

The Kanlaon and Mayon volcanoes have also been on Alert Level 1 since March 11 and July 17, respectively.

Meanwhile, Phivolcs lowered the alert status of Bulusan Volcano from Alert Level 1 to Alert Level 0 on October 26, meaning “no magmatic eruption is foreseen in the immediate future.”

According to Bornas, other active volcanoes in the country are very quiet, with no imminent eruption foreseen.

Previously, Rappler also fact-checked a similar claim on volcano alert levels. (READ: FALSE: 4 volcanoes placed under Alert Level 1 after Masbate earthquake) – Jo Comuyog, Loreben Tuquero/Rappler.com

This article was written by a Rappler volunteer or intern and reviewed by a member of Rappler’s research team and a senior editor. Learn more about Rappler’s internship program here.

Keep us aware of suspicious Facebook pages, groups, accounts, websites, articles, or photos in your network by contacting us at factcheck@rappler.com. Let us battle disinformation one Fact Check at a time.

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