Hague ruling on West Philippine Sea

What’s behind Duterte’s strong Hague ruling assertion before UN?

Pia Ranada

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What’s behind Duterte’s strong Hague ruling assertion before UN?

President Rodrigo Roa Duterte updates the nation on the government's efforts in addressing the coronavirus disease (COVID-19) at the Malago Clubhouse in Malacañang on April 6, 2020. ACE MORANDANTE/PRESIDENTIAL PHOTO

Here are 5 factors that likely led to President Rodrigo Duterte's surprisingly strong defense of an international court ruling that has agitated China

Critics of Philippine President Rodrigo Duterte’s approach to China were in for a surprise when he raised the Hague ruling before world leaders, in no less than his first speech before the United Nations General Assembly.

Though he spoke of the award in only 4 sentences within a 20-minute speech, his words were electric.

Duterte went beyond the usual platitudes of Filipino diplomats calling on nations to respect the rule of law and peaceful resolutions to conflicts in the South China Sea.

He said the Philippines “firmly rejects attempts to undermine” the Hague ruling and that the decision, which Beijing continues to ignore, is “beyond compromise” and “beyond the reach of passing governments to dilute, diminish, or abandon.” (READ: Carpio lauds Duterte for asserting Hague ruling in UN)

It’s the strongest verbal brandishing of the Hague ruling from Duterte yet. Even more notable is how he declared it from the highest multilateral podium, the UN General Assembly where world leaders address each other. 

This is in stark contrast to his preference for bilateral negotiations early in his presidency. Rather than involve the world’s nations to pressure China into respecting the Philippines’ exclusive rights in the West Philippine Sea, Duterte wanted to engage with Beijing directly and alone, an approach China also prefers. Duterte ignored early warnings of the perils of this plan.

It departs from Duterte’s initial tendency to tip-toe around the Hague ruling, for fear of pissing off China.

“President Duterte contradicting the past 4 years’ worth of his own pro-China rhetoric and fatalism is good on one hand, but on the other, also should be taken with a grain of salt,” maritime law expert and University of the Philippines professor Jay Batongbacal told Rappler.

Admitting surprise at hearing about Duterte’s UN speech, Batongbacal nevertheless is still waiting for more actions and postures that, for him, are the only real proof of the Philippine leader’s sincerity and commitment.

What gives?

So what could be behind the apparent turnaround? Why did Duterte assert the Hague ruling now after years of saying he was still waiting for the right moment? After he warned that raising it could goad China into war?

Let’s talk about 5 factors that could have played a part in events.

1. Locsin

Diplomats who observed Duterte’s speech note that the strongest declarations about the Hague ruling carry the unmistakeable imprints of Philippine Foreign Secretary Teodoro “Teddyboy” Locsin Jr.

The “beyond compromise” portion likely came from him. Duterte’s UN speech would have included inputs from the Department of Foreign Affairs (DFA), led by Locsin. Let’s not forget that the DFA chief, infamous for his verbose, no-holds-barred tweeting, had served as speech writer for 3 Philippine presidents.

Even when Locsin was the country’s permanent representative to the United Nations, a post assigned to him by Duterte, he was already actively but quietly challenging China’s posturing within the international body.

Locsin became foreign secretary in late 2018, replacing Alan Peter Cayetano, now House Speaker who had never held a diplomatic post and was less assertive in public about China’s encroachments in the West Philippine Sea.

2. Recent efforts by China to undermine Hague ruling

Duterte’s bombshell remarks can be viewed in another way: not as the start of a new shift in policy but just the loudest indication of changes that have been afoot for a while now.

Diplomats Rappler spoke with say that the stronger pushback against China began in 2019 and escalated to protest notes issued by the DFA this year. 

In April 2019, Duterte surprised even Philippine diplomats when he went off-script during a meeting with Chinese President Xi Jinping to “remind” him of the Hague ruling.

Later that year, in December, China issued a note verbale reiterating its “Four Sha” claim, a “legal theory” used by China, in reaction to the arbitral award, as basis for its sovereignty and maritime claims in the South China Sea. In the “Four Sha” doctrine, China claims that 4 island groups in the South China Sea, including the Spratlys, are enclosed in a single archipelagic system that generates its own maritime zones China is entitled to. 

This position contradicts the United Nations Convention on the Law of the Sea (UNCLOS) which China itself is party to.

China’s note verbale triggered a flurry of protests from other countries with claims in the South China Sea, like Vietnam and Malaysia in the months of May to August this year.

While the Duterte government did indeed profess an inclination for bilateral talks with China to appease the powerful and wealthy neighbor, the multilateral route was never completely shelved. 

In the face of unilateral actions by a country, Philippine diplomats have always recommended turning to multilateral platforms like the UN.

3. Escalating US-China rivalry

A source says another factor in the timing of Duterte’s remarks is the growing tensions between the US and China, world powers with which the Philippines has special ties. 

The US has been upping the ante in its South China Sea policy to challenge China’s bid for dominance there. In March last year, Secretary of State Mike Pompeo issued a much-awaited assurance that the US would come to the Philippines’ aid if China were to attack any Philippine vessel in the South China Sea. This July, the Western power renewed its warning that any Chinese occupation of Panatag (Scarborough) Shoal would have “severe consequences.” This likely emboldened Locsin to say a month later that he would call on America should China attack Philippine forces.

Batongbacal thinks that Philippine officials might be perceiving a “real possibility of Chinese action” in the South China Sea.

“Siding with the external powers on this issue may be the only substantial contribution the Philippines can make in discouraging any adventurism on China’s part,” he said.

A “nervous” Philippine military, a sector Duterte listens to, would surely add to the growing calls for action against China’s continued aggression, said Batongbacal.

Amidst the US-China power play, the Duterte government wants to maintain a “strategic autonomy” between China and the US that allows the Philippines to push back on sovereignty issues. The Duterte administration’s affirmation of the Hague ruling is its challenge to China, just as its repudiation of human rights resolutions is its challenge to the US and the European Union.

The Philippines’ Ambassador to China, Chito Santa Romana, described Duterte’s UN speech as an “excellent articulation of the administration’s independent foreign policy.”

“It reflects the strategic approach of supporting the UN at a time of escalating global tensions,” he told Rappler.

4. How about China’s vaccine?

Is Duterte’s obsession with a COVID-19 vaccine coloring his foreign policy? Why risk antagonizing China, a possible source of a vaccine? But this might not be as big a factor as some would think.

“I think the President considers the bilateral relations as strong enough to withstand such differences. And we will continue to discuss and manage these differences if we cannot resolve them right away,” Sta Romana said.

The strength of his Hague ruling remarks are cushioned by the fact that he had already personally raised the Hague ruling with Xi in their meetings, heard and accepted Xi’s position on the matter.

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With Philippine diplomats consistently mentioning the Hague ruling in fora like bilateral consultations and Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN) meetings, it would have been an anomaly if Duterte were to leave out the arbitral award in his UN speech. Besides, China is not the only source of a coronavirus vaccine. Duterte officials are in talks with Russian, American, and European suppliers.

5. 2022 elections

Domestic politics could also be one consideration of the move, according to Batongbacal. Filipinos will be voting for a new president in 2022, when Duterte is scheduled to step down.

Perhaps the administration senses that strong remarks against China could “blunt criticism” and play to the overwhelming sentiment of Filipinos that the government should fight for Philippine rights in the West Philippine Sea. – Rappler.com

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Pia Ranada

Pia Ranada is Rappler’s Community Lead, in charge of linking our journalism with communities for impact.