The Erap factor in the 2016 elections

Remember that list of 11 names for possible presidential candidates in the June 24-July 2, 2014 Pulse Asia survey? One of them was that of Joseph “Erap” Estrada. He wasn’t in the last March 19-26, 2014 survey but was included in this latest poll.

He got a 9% rating, oceans away from the hands-down preferred presidential contender, Vice President Jejomar Binay, but just 3 percentage points shy of Grace Poe’s 12%. Estrada also fared slightly better than Mar Roxas, Chiz Escudero, and Miriam Defensor Santiago who each got 7%.

What does Erap’s possible entry into the 2016 presidential fray tell us? Several things from the last survey:

• He does not affect Binay’s numbers, which, in fact, remained practically unchanged at 41% from the previous survey’s 40% (factor in a typical ±3% margin of error)
• He could adversely affect Poe whose 15% in the previous survey dropped to 12%
• He could adversely affect Escudero whose previous 9% also dipped to 7%
• He could adversely affect Santiago whose previous 10% slipped to 7%. But by the end-period of the survey (July 2), Santiago had announced she had lung cancer, which could have been an added factor too.
• He could aid Roxas slightly, but perhaps not quite, given the minimal rise from Roxas’ 6% to 7%

As a whole then, at least two years before the presidential elections, if Erap ran for president, it appears he would not eat into the votes of Binay who, like him, is strong among the Class E voters. Instead, he would clearly eat into the Class E voters of Poe, who also has a strong following among the poor. Whether this would become more apparent in succeeding surveys remains to be seen.

From the latest survey, Poe was seen to benefit from an endorsement by President Benigno Aquino III – 70% of respondents said they would vote for her, of which 29% said they would “surely vote for” her. In comparison, with an Aquino endorsement, 51% said they would vote for Mar Roxas, of which 14% said they would “surely vote for” him. (READ: Even with Aquino endorsement, more prefer Poe over Roxas)

With Erap’s possible entry into the race – contingent too on a Supreme Court (SC) decision on a disqualification case filed against him – many will be watching the succeeding survey figures very closely. Assuming the SC says the presidential pardon granted him by former president Gloria Macapagal Arroyo in relation to Estrada’s plunder case was absolute, will there be more reason for either Binay or Poe to worry? – Rappler.com