Who’s who in the 2016 senatorial surveys

MANILA, Philippines – While the public has yet to hear official declarations about senatorial candidacies for the 2016 elections, more than 80 possible names have already been floated through surveys.

Since last year, pollster Pulse Asia has already revealed 89 names of preferred senatorial candidates from 5 separate surveys it conducted for the 2016 senatorial elections.

Not all names consistently  appeared in all survey results, though. Out of the 89 names, only 26 have appeared in all of the 5 surveys conducted by the polling firm. At least 19 appeared only once.

As of the latest survey (the March 2015 edition), there are 52 personalities preferred by respondents to join the elections in 2016.

(On the table below, click on either PERCENTAGE or RANKING to see values for each.)

PERCENTAGE RANKING PERCENTAGE   2014 Mar (Pulse Asia) 2014 Jun (Pulse Asia) 2014 Sept (Pulse Asia) 2014 Nov (Pulse Asia) 2015 Mar (Pulse Asia) Sotto, Tito 57.6 53.8 51.6 54.7 59.3 Lacson, Ping 47.4 47.1 47.1 52.9 58.3 Marcos, Bongbong 41.6 43.8 47.2 40.5 47.2 Pangilinan, Kiko 48 54.7 51.5 49.2 44.7 Drilon, Frank 56.3 44.7 42.6 44.9 44.1 Recto, Ralph 48.3 52.7 44.1 45.1 43.9 Zubiri, Migz 44.7 42.2 41.5 45.5 40.2 Osmeña, Serge 40.8 37.4 35.4 37.8 36 De Lima, Leila 33.5 28.6 35.3 33.8 36 Gordon, Dick 41.9 45.1 45.9 42.9 35.5 Hontiveros, Risa 34 32.4 30.7 35.4 33.1 Madrigal, Jamby 37.4 38.2 35.9 34.9 33.1 Guingona, TG 29.3 30.8 23.5 31.8 29.8 Cayetano, Lino 31.7 32 27.7 31.3 29.7 Pacquiao, Manny 34.8 25.6 31.3 21.9 29.5 Lapid, Mark   18.1 15.6 18.2 27.6 Atienza, Lito   22.1 22 26.7 25.3 Moreno, Isko     24.5 19.6 22.9 Biazon, Ruffy 17.8 18.4 17 18.6 19.6 Revilla, Lani 21.1 28.4 21.4 19 19 Magsaysay, Mitos 21.6 23.2 20.6 21.5 18.9 Tolentino, Francis   12.2 9.7 14.2 15.6 Dantes, Dingdong 12.5 11.5 11.1 12.8 13 Robredo, Leni 13.3 15.2 20.6 12.4 9.6 Villanueva, Joel 5.3 7.4 5.3 8.3 9.2 Clavio, Arnold     7.9 11.4 8.1 Acosta, Persida       10.1 7.5 Henares, Kim 6.5       7.1 Lim, Danilo   6.5 4.8 7.3 7 Casiño, Teddy 9.9   9.2 9 6.9 Romualdez, Ferdinand Martin 2 4.8 2.6 5.8 6.9 Tañada, Lorenzo III 4.6 4.2 4 6.4 6.6 Salceda, Joey   3.1 4 6 6.5 Fariñas, Rudy 2.6 2.9 2.9 2.3 6.1 Gatchalian, Sherwin 4.1 5 3.2 8.1 5.8 Rodriguez, Rufus 3.9 5.4 4.8 4.7 5.2 Rasul, Amina   4.6 4.5 4.8 4.9 David, Randy       4.4 4.1 Lozada, Jun   4.3   4.1 3.9 Langit, Rey       4.3 3.8 Diokno, Jose       2.8 3.8 Arenas, Rachel Baby 1.5     1.5 3.3 Romulo, Roman 2.6   3.3 4.4 3.2 Abaya, Jun       3.5 3 Hataman, Mujiv   3 2.6 3.1 2.9 Colmenares, Neri   2.2 2.6 2.5 2.5 Alunan, Rafael     1.4 1.2 2.3 Berberabe, Darlene 1.2     0.7 2.2 Petilla, Carlos Jericho 2.5   2.3 2.1 2.1 Kapunan, Lorna         2.1 Roque, Harry       0.5 0.9 Remoto, Danton   0.6 0.7 0.6 0.4 Enrile, Jack 31.1 23.8 20.4 23.6   Hagedorn, Edward 16.4 20.1 19.6 22   Roxas, Mar 52.9 47 47.6     Santos, Vilma     44.5     Pimentel, Gwen 17.7 18.9 16.8     Bautista, Herbert 31.5 32.3       Aquino, Kris 31.8         Soledad, Shalani 12.7 8.9 8.7     De Venecia, Manay Gina 10.9         Soliman, Dinky 10.3   11.7     Barbers, Ace 9.4 10.6 10.3     Taberna, Anthony 8.3         Remulla, Gilbert 8.1 11 11.7 11.3   Gozon, Felipe 6.2         Abad, Butch 5.3 5 5.6     Tupas, Niel Jr 5.3   3.9     Quezon, Manolo 4.4 6.4       Durano, Ace 3.9 3.6       Lacierda, Edwin 3.8         Carandang, Ricky 2.9         Almendras, Jose 2.6 2.7 1.5     Tiangco, Toby 2.5         Villafuerte, Lray 2.5 2.4 2.1     Delos Reyes, JC 2.5 3.9       Rosales, Etta 2 2.1 1.9     Remulla, Jesus Crispin 1.8         Barzaga, Elpidio Jr 1.5         Umali, Reynaldo 1.1 2.2       Quimbo, Miro 0.9         Erice, Edgar     1.7     Romulo-Puyat, Bernadette     0.8     Manzano, Edu       11.9   Moreno, Alma       8.8   Herrera, Ernesto       8.7   Lina, Joey       5.1   Macalintal, Romulo       2.6   Abante, Bienvenido Jr       1.9               OTHERS 0.8 0.6       NONE 0.2 1.8 1 3.6 2.1 REFUSED   0.3 0.4 0.3 1 DON’T KNOW 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.5 0.3 RANKING   2014 Mar (Pulse Asia) 2014 Jun (Pulse Asia) 2014 Sept (Pulse Asia) 2014 Nov (Pulse Asia) 2015 Mar (Pulse Asia) Sotto, Tito 1-3 1-3 1-6 1-3 1-2 Lacson, Ping 3-8 3-9 1-10 1-3 1-2 Marcos, Bongbong 7-11 4-9 1-10 4-10 3-6 Pangilinan, Kiko 3-7 1-3 1-6 1-6 3-7 Drilon, Frank 1-3 4-9 3-10 3-8 3-7 Recto, Ralph 3-7 1-5 3-10 3-8 3-7 Zubiri, Migz 4-10 4-11 4-10 3-8 4-10 Osmeña, Serge 7-11 9-14 11-15 7-12 7-12 De Lima, Leila 11-19 12-19 11-15 9-14 7-12 Gordon, Dick 6-11 4-9 1-10 4-9 7-12 Hontiveros, Risa 11-19 11-17 11-16 8-14 8-15 Madrigal, Jamby 8-14 9-11 11-15 9-14 8-15 Guingona, TG 13-19 12-17 16-24 10-15 11-17 Cayetano, Lino 12-19 11-17 14-18 10-15 11-17 Pacquiao, Manny 11-18 16-21 11-16 15-23 11-17 Lapid, Mark   21-26 24-27 17-24 13-18 Atienza, Lito   18-25 17-24 13-18 13-18 Moreno, Isko     16-23 16-23 16-21 Biazon, Ruffy 20-24 21-26 20-27 17-23 18-22 Revilla, Lani 20-23 12-19 17-25 16-23 18-22 Magsaysay, Mitos 20-23 18-23 17-26 16-23 18-22 Tolentino, Francis   26-31 28-35 23-29 19-23 Dantes, Dingdong 24-31 26-31 28-35 24-30 22-24 Robredo, Leni 24-30 23-28 17-26 24-31 23-34 Villanueva, Joel 33-44 30-38 35-45 28-39 24-35 Clavio, Arnold     30-37 24-35 24-36 Acosta, Persida       25-36 24-38 Henares, Kim 31-42       24-38 Lim, Danilo   31-41 36-46 30-42 24-38 Casiño, Teddy 25-33   28-35 26-38 24-38 Romualdez, Ferdinand Martin 44-60 32-47 39-55 33-47 24-38 Tañada, Lorenzo III 34-50 33-50 36-51 31-46 24-39 Salceda, Joey   36-51 36-51 31-46 24-39 Fariñas, Rudy 39-59 36-51 38-55 46-56 25-42 Gatchalian, Sherwin 34-52 32-46 37-54 28-39 26-42 Rodriguez, Rufus 34-53 32-43 36-47 36-50 28-45 Rasul, Amina   33-47 36-49 36-49 28-46 David, Randy       37-51 33-49 Lozada, Jun   33-48   37-52 35-51 Langit, Rey       37-51 35-51 Diokno, Jose       41-55 35-51 Arenas, Rachel Baby 45-60     48-59 37-51 Romulo, Roman 39-59   36-53 37-51 37-51 Abaya, Jun       39-54 37-51 Hataman, Mujiv   36-51 39-55 40-55 38-51 Colmenares, Neri   41-51 39-55 43-56 39-51 Alunan, Rafael     46-57 50-59 39-52 Berberabe, Darlene 45-60     54-59 39-52 Petilla, Carlos Jericho 39-59   41-55 47-56 40-52 Kapunan, Lorna         40-52 Roque, Harry       55-59 48-53 Remoto, Danton   52-52 52-57 54-59 52-53 Enrile, Jack   16-22 17-26 15-21   Hagedorn, Edward 22-27 19-25 18-27 15-23   Roxas, Mar  1-6 3-9 1-9      Santos, Vilma     3-10      Pimentel, Gwen 20-24 20-26 21-27     Bautista, Herbert  12-19 11-17        Aquino, Kris  12-19         Soledad, Shalani 24-31 27-34 28-35     De Venecia, Manay Gina 25-33         Soliman, Dinky 25-33   28-34     Barbers, Ace 26-34 27-32 28-35     Taberna, Anthony 28-36         Remulla, Gilbert 28-37 27-31 28-34 24-35   Gozon, Felipe 32-44         Abad, Butch 33-44 32-47 35-44     Tupas, Niel Jr 33-44   36-51     Quezon, Manolo 34-52 31-42       Durano, Ace 35-53 35-51       Lacierda, Edwin 35-54         Carandang, Ricky 39-58         Almendras, Jose 39-59 37-51 45-57     Tiangco, Toby 39-59         Villafuerte, Lray 40-59 40-51 41-56     Delos Reyes, JC 40-59 34-51       Rosales, Etta 42-60 42-51 44-57     Remulla, Jesus Crispin 45-60         Barzaga, Elpidio Jr 45-60         Umali, Reynaldo 46-60 41-51       Quimbo, Miro 53-60         Erice, Edgar     44-57     Romulo-Puyat, Bernadette     51-57     Manzano, Edu       24-33   Moreno, Alma       27-38   Herrera, Ernesto       27-39   Lina, Joey       36-48   Macalintal, Romulo       42-56   Abante, Bienvenido Jr       47-58

 

Leading the pack are the following reelectionist and returning senators, whose rankings in the surveys have never dropped from the top 20:

• Vicente Sotto
• Ferdinand Marcos Jr
• Franklin Drilon
• Ralph Recto
• Sergio Osmeña III
• TG Guingona
• Panfilo Lacson (former senator)
• Francis Pangilinan (former senator)
• Richard Gordon (former senator)
• Miguel Zubiri (former senator)
• Jamby Madrigal (former senator)

Some personalities who lost in recent senatorial elections have resurrected and made an appearance in the surveys. Those who are part of at least the top 25 are:

• Risa Hontiveros (lost in 2013 and 2010)
• Dick Gordon (lost in 2013)
• Migz Zubiri (lost in 2013)
• Jamby Madrigal (lost in 2013)
• Mitos Magsaysay (lost in 2013)
• Ruffy Biazon (lost in 2010)

Other personalities – who will likely be fresh faces in the senatorial race – and who are in the top 25 are:

• Justice Secretary Leila de Lima
• Taguig City Representative Lino Cayetano
• boxer and Sarangani Representative Manny Pacquiao
• Tourism Infrastructure and Enterprise Zone Authority (TIEZA) chief operating officer and former Pampanga governor Mark Lapid
• Buhay partylist Representative and former Manila City mayor Lito Atienza
• Manila City Vice Mayor Isko Moreno
• Cavite 2nd district Representative Lani Mercado-Revilla

Both Interior and Local Secretary Mar Roxas and Quezon City Mayor Herbert Bautista were enjoying high rankings in the initial run of surveys, with Roxas in top 10 and Bautista in top 20.

However, Bautista’s name suddenly disappeared from the list after the 2nd survey, and Roxas’ name was gone after the 3rd survey.

Who are the rest who appear in the surveys? They are past losing senatorial candidates, incumbent members of the House of Representatives, prominent local and appointed officials, and some TV personalities.

Hints

Various officials and analysts have already hinted at who might be part of next year’s senatorial race. Most of the names revealed have already been included in survey results.

In April, Caloocan Representative Edgar Erice said that 19 names are short-listed for the senatorial slate of the Liberal Party. Among the 19 individuals, only one was not mentioned in the surveys: Las Piñas Representative Mark Villar.

Dingdong Dantes Herbert Bautista Isko Moreno Leila de Lima Francis Tolentino Leni Robredo Franklin Drilon

Ralph Recto Teofisto Guingona III Sergio Osmeña III Panfilo Lacson Francis Pangilinan Jericho Petilla

Joel Villanueva Risa Hontiveros Roman Romulo Rufus Rodriguez Lino Cayetano Mark Villar

Erice is himself included in one survey result – ranking 44-57 in the September 2014 survey.

One of the 19 shortlisted LP candidates, Energy Secretary Carlos Petilla, had already filed his resignation in April, but had been requested to stay on until his replacement is found. He, however, hasn’t decided what post he would seek in the May 2016 elections.

In June, the United Nationalist Alliance (UNA) revealed a set of possible senatorial candidates that enlisted 14 personalities. Among them, only Quirino wasn’t mentioned in the surveys.

Vicente Sotto Manny Pacquiao Lito Atienza Sherwin Gatchalian Martin Romualdez

Lani Mercado-Revilla Miguel Zubiri Richard Gordon Persida Acosta Alma Moreno

Romulo Macalintal Rey Langit Cory Quirino Isko Moreno

Meanwhile, a Philippine Star report in 2014 said that at least 16 incumbent members of the House of Representatives eyed a possible senatorial candidacy in 2016.

Not all of them, however, appear in the results of the senatorial surveys. But as far as these results are concerned, there are at least 20 incumbent congressmen preferred to join the senatorial race. 

As to who will constitute the official line-up of senatorial candidates, the public will have to wait. – Rappler.com