How minor changes to Embiid’s offense made the difference for Sixers

The Philadelphia 76ers have perhaps their best chance of winning a championship this season — and it’s mostly thanks to the emergence of Joel Embiid as a legitimate MVP candidate.

The Sixers currently sit atop the Eastern Conference, with a one-game lead over the Brooklyn Nets. Barring a slump or injuries to key players, they will most likely finish with the top seed. Considering the enormous amounts of uncertainty this season has brought — COVID-19 complications, injuries, and a compressed schedule that has provided little breathing room — getting as much playoff leeway as possible is a luxury the Sixers would be well happy to have. 

There’s no question that Embiid has been the Sixers’ best player, let alone the best player in the entire league this season. He’s averaging career highs in several categories this year, including points (30.0), overall field goal percentage (51.6%), two-point field goal percentage (54.4%), and three-point field goal percentage (37.9%). His true-shooting percentage of 64.2% is far and away a career-best, a testament to the incredible scoring efficiency he has shown this year.

Embiid putting up a monstrous stat line has been somewhat of an everyday occurrence this season, and it’s easy to get used to it. But you can’t help but marvel at how much of a leap he has taken this year.

Most of that leap has been due to him being relatively healthier this season compared to previous years, although he has missed 18 of the Sixers’ 56 games so far. In the games that he has played, he has been nothing but dominant, not just on the offensive end but also as the Sixers’ defensive anchor.

Embiid tortured the Los Angeles Clippers with another stat-stuffed performance: 36 points and 14 rebounds on 10-of-20 shooting from the field, including an eye-popping 16-of-18 clip from the free throw line. Embiid has been doing it all on offense, scoring in a variety of ways on live-ball possessions as well as through frequent trips to the stripe.

Embiid’s arsenal was on full display against the Clippers, and even with the Clippers shooting an astronomical 48.7% on threes (19-of-39), the Sixers managed to squeak through with a win, thanks to Embiid being a darn-near unstoppable offensive force.

Embiid’s face-up game

Listed at 7-feet flat and weighing approximately 280 pounds, Embiid has relied mostly on his post game on offense. That rare combination of height and heft has made it almost a necessity for him to live within the confines of the low post.

Around 35% of Embiid’s possessions this season has been on post-ups; no one else has had more post-up possessions in the league than him, per NBA.com. He’s scoring 1.08 points per possession (PPP) on them, which is 3rd among centers in the league that have tallied at least 50 post-up possessions.

Breaking down Embiid’s post-up numbers further will tell you that he’s spending an unusually high amount of time facing up, rather than using a traditional back-to-the basket game that big men have historically used as their bread-and-butter offense.

Embiid spends 62% of his time on the left block on post-ups, and most of them consist of him turning to face his defender in a triple-threat position, per Synergy.

Even though Embiid is perfectly capable of backing his man down toward the rim — he still pretty much outsizes everyone on the court — relying on his face-up game has opened up a whole slew of possibilities, while covering glaring weaknesses that have plagued him in the past.

Take this possession, for instance, in the 3rd quarter against the Clippers. The Sixers initially run some nifty Iverson-cut action that flows into a side dribble hand-off between Ben Simmons and Furkan Korkmaz. Nothing comes out of that particular play, so they go to Embiid to make something out of nothing.

Almost like a perimeter guard or wing, Embiid opts to face up against Ivica Zubac. He uses his handles — uncannily competent for a player his size — to establish rhythm. He then bumps Zubac to dislodge him from his defensive stance, creating space in the process and going up for a one-legged fadeaway jumper that swishes.

That jumper looks like something taken out of a page from Dallas Mavericks legend Dirk Nowitzki — something that isn’t out of pure coincidence, according to Embiid.

“We started watching a lot of Dirk film,” Embiid said after the game.

Embiid has been making a living on mid-range jumpers this season. On short mid-range jumpers (the area in-between 4 feet from the rim and 14 feet from the rim), he is shooting 46.1%; on long mid-range jumpers (the area in-between 14 feet from the rim and the three-point line), he is shooting 51.4%, per PBP stats. Both marks are career highs.

Here’s a similar possession. Take note of where on the floor it takes place:

Once again, Embiid faces up. Unlike the previous clip, however, he doesn’t even put the ball down on the floor. Out of the triple threat, he senses Nicolas Batum using his arm as a feeler of sorts — and Embiid uses that to his advantage by drawing a foul, plus the bucket.

Again, notice where Embiid is stationed on that particular possession: at the nail, approximately near the free throw line. That makes it difficult for the Clippers to send another man toward Embiid to double, especially with Embiid facing up and maximizing the use of his peripheral vision. That leaves Batum — a much smaller man in terms of height and weight — on an island and at Embiid’s mercy.

“As soon as I got to the nail, everything opened up,” Embiid said. “I just started playing from that and I was making shots. As soon as [a double team] was coming, I kicked it out to shooters.”

Embiid’s kryptonite has always been his difficulty with double teams being sent his way while posting up. Opponents aren’t keen on defending him in single coverage, especially if he has a mismatch down low. One tactic often employed by defenses is to send someone over late in the shot clock — often from Embiid’s blind side — to double and smother Embiid, forcing him to panic and turn the ball over.

The adjustment from primarily back-to-the-basket post-ups to facing up has somewhat remedied Embiid’s weakness to double teams. It makes sense — when you’re backing someone down, you reduce your vision by a significant amount. You barely see what’s happening on the weak side. Is someone open? Is there someone about to cut? Are they going to send someone over to help? Only those who possess preternatural vision and awareness are comfortable in such situations.

Facing up has made Embiid more aware of what’s going on in the periphery. He sees double teams coming. He knows which of his teammates is left open as a result. Knowing who to pass it to has made it easier for the Sixers to find gaping holes created by the defense selling out on Embiid.

With the shot clock winding down in the possession above, Reggie Jackson comes over from the weak-side slot to double Embiid, who is facing up. Embiid is backed into the corner, but since he still has vision of the weak side due to facing up, he sees Korkmaz open up top and kicks the ball out to him. The ball is then swung to Mike Scott, who drills the open three.

A seemingly minor adjustment has had a significantly major impact on Embiid’s offensive game. He is more capable of manipulating the defense, more free to take any shot he wants, and is more able to find teammates who are capable of punishing teams who devote most, if not all, of their focus on stopping Embiid at all costs.

Embiid’s prolific foul shooting

Imagine trying to defend Embiid on a possession such as this one:

A side benefit of Embiid upping his effectiveness on mid-range shots is forcing defenders to bite on those up fakes, afraid of giving up a high-percentage shot to Embiid. Ironically, by biting on those fakes, defenders are giving up even more of a high percentage shot to Embiid: a free throw attempt.

Also consider this possession, which should look familiar:

The play calls for a simple ballscreen between Shake Milton and Embiid, similar to the clip above involving Batum. The goal is simple: get Embiid stationed at the nail, and let him create from there.

Marcus Morris Sr. defends Embiid to the best of his abilities, but there’s just nothing you can do when someone is not only much bigger and stronger than you, but also has the kind of quickness and first-step explosion not seen from many other big men. Morris has no choice but to foul Embiid on his way to the rim.

Embiid has added prolific foul shooting to his vast offensive repertoire — he shoots 11.8 free throws per game, and has a free throw attempt rate of 64.2%, both of which are career-high marks. No one has averaged more trips to the line this season, per NBA.com. 

What’s even more amazing is that he’s making the most out of his trips, drilling 85.5% of his attempts — also a career high.

“I don’t think teams really know what to do when guarding him,” Ben Simmons said of Embiid. “I think he’s clearly the MVP this season. He’s been so dominant and consistent this whole year, and he’s been healthy, which has been great for us.”

Embiid’s MVP chances might’ve taken a hit when he missed 10 straight games due to a knee injury. But his impact on the court has made his case arguably the strongest out of all the candidates.

The Sixers outscore opponents by 12.4 points per 100 possessions when Embiid is on the floor playing, per PBP stats. Their offense with Embiid on the floor easily surpasses that of the Nets’ league-best mark; without Embiid, they devolve into the 5th-worst offense in terms of efficiency.

Coupled with his ability to play the role of the Sixers’ defensive anchor (even if his on/off numbers on that end aren’t as significant as they are on offense), Embiid has evolved into a bona fide superstar, the culmination of a years-long process that started with early signs of transcendence that was put on hold due to persistent health issues.

Now that Embiid has, for the most part, stayed on the court, he has been able to show the world his ultimate offensive form: a foul-drawing machine, a post-up nightmare, and a face-up monster from the triple threat position, a recipe for the perfect pick-your-poison scoring repertoire. – Rappler.com