SUMMARY
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MANILA, Philippines – There’s only one UAAP Finals spot remaining.
The Final Four battle in the men’s basketball tournament of UAAP Season 78 began this weekend with the FEU Tamaraws eliminating the Ateneo Blue Eagles on Saturday, November 21. The other match-up features the UST Growling Tigers and defending champion NU Bulldogs on Sunday, November 22.
As the first and second seeds, respectively, UST and FEU earned twice-to-beat advantages, which means third seed Ateneo and fourth seed NU will have to win twice to make the Finals. The top two teams only need one win to advance.
In this preview, Rappler zeroes in on a familiar match-up between felines and canines.
Roles reversed
Two years ago in Season 76, the Bulldogs looked poised to end a 59-year title drought as the top seed in the Final Four. History was on their side as never before had a fourth seeded team ousted the top squad in the Final Four era – until then.
The Tigers, notorious even then as the “Comeback Cats,” became the first fourth seed to take down a twice-to-beat first seed and go on to the Finals. The Bulldogs had to wait another year before finally achieving UAAP men’s hoops glory.
Now, the script has been flipped.
NU scraped by with the fourth semifinals slot and is looking to return the favor to top seed UST. Head coach Eric Altamirano declared his team is “always ready” for anything – even an emotionally draining road to the Finals. Though this time, they will be taking on an equally prepared and veteran UST crew.
How they got here
For the Espanya-based Tigers, the season was all about unexpected dominance. Few, if anyone, predicted they would make the Final Four this year, let alone be on top of the heap following a disappointing Season 77.
But on the leadership of veterans Kevin Ferrer, Ed Daquioag, and Karim Abdul, UST tore through the league strumbling only thrice.
UST reclaimed its reputation as comeback kings with some thrilling come-from-behind wins. Though they were victims of a heart-breaker as well at the hands of NU in the first round.
The Bulldogs’ season has been the exact opposite of their Final Four opponent. The defending champions started the season at 0-3 as they grappled to find their identity.
NU, who claimed its first win of the season against UST thanks to Alfred Aroga’s game-winner, managed to string together some victories and finished the first round at 3-4 before pressure grew more palpable after they sank to 3-5 in the second round.
Altamirano’s wards made a run for the Final Four by finishing the eliminations with an even 7-7 record. Quotient and circumstance favored the Bulldogs as La Salle lost to FEU in its final elimination game. A win would have forced a playoff between NU and La Salle for the last Final Four seat.
Keys to winning
There’s no doubt it will be a quite decent defensive match-up between the two schools. NU tops the league in points allowed at a very suffocating 65.1 per game. They are second in the league in field goal percentage allowed at 36.9% a game, only a hair behind FEU’s 36.8%.
The Bulldogs are one of the best defensive teams in the UAAP this season and are generally in the upper half, even second or first, across most defensive statistics.
UST, on the other hand, is an underrated defensive team in the middle of the pack in defensive stats. The team’s defense is overshadowed by its offensive firepower in the likes of Ferrer, Daquioag, Abdul, Louie Vigil, and Mario Bonleon.
And it’s likely the offense that will make every bit of difference.
The Tigers are much more loaded and the Bulldogs will have their hands full trying to stop every opposing scorer – especially Ferrer, who narrowly missed this season’s MVP plum. One thing to watch out is how NU will respond to UST’s league-best 31% 3-point shooting. (READ: Flu can’t stop Ferrer from torching Ateneo)
The Bulldogs are the worst in defending 3-point shots, allowing 26.9% triples. Then again, that’s if the Tigers can get shots to fall.
NU is second to last in points produced at 66.8 per game. However, it is worth noting they are fourth in the league in field goal shooting with 38.7% as they attempt fewer shots but are efficient in making them.
One critical department NU can certainly exploit is its dominance in the paint. Alfred Aroga anchors the Bulldogs’ inside presence and is the second best rebounder in the UAAP with 12.9 rebounds a game, behind Adamson’s Papi Sarr.
The bad news for UST is they are surprisingly the worst rebounding team, despite having big man Abdul.
The Tigers will also need much contribution from its bench, which provides the least support among all teams with just 17.5 points per game, meaning UST relies heavily on its starters, who produce a league-leading average of 56.4 points. And that’s another area where the Bulldogs can do damage as the best at limiting starters at just 37.4 points per contest.
Guard Gelo Alolino will be the expected go-to guy for NU at crunch time, while team captain Ferrer will carry UST.
For UST to barge into the Finals, quickly dispatching NU as early in the game as possible will be key. Allowing the Bulldogs to hang around late will certainly be dangerous.
And for NU, they must close out on UST’s perimeter guys, and at the same time space the floor with accurate shooting to force the Tigers’ defenders out of the paint, where the Bulldogs have the advantage. It will be interesting to see another spirited battle between Abdul and Aroga.
The pressure will certainly be on the Tigers to avoid a major collapse, especially coming off a two-week break. It remains to be seen whether long rest or the Bulldogs’ momentum will prevail.
Prediction
The Tigers’ loaded offensive weapons may be too much even for the Bulldogs’ defense. The defending champions, however, will not go down without a fight. It’s likely UST will need two games to win this series.
– Rappler.com
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