Waiting for Ruby

Manila hunkered down, praying on bended knees that the strong typhoon would fizzle out before it could inflict more damage to life and property. For believers, the power of prayer was abundantly demonstrated once again. For the scientists, it was something like the favorable conditions of cold vapors, lack of a vertical shield and landfall that stopped Ruby’s rampage. 

But as Metro Manila braced itself for Ruby’s lashing, the typhoon was a no-show. Ruby had thankfully stood us up. One of the unintended consequences of  the preoccupation for a cyclone to hit is the learning we inevitably get. 

For instance, the other names for typhoon are hurricane, cyclone and tropical storm. But apparently there are distinctions that indicate their point of origin. For the curious minds, here are interesting facts culled from the National Geographic website:

• In the Atlantic and northern Pacific, the storms are called “hurricanes,” 
• In the northwestern Pacific, they are called “typhoons” while in southeastern Indian Ocean and southwestern Pacific, they are known as “severe tropical cyclones.”
• From northern Indian Ocean, they’re “severe cyclonic storms.” In the southwestern Indian Ocean, “tropical cyclones.”
• To be classified as a hurricane, typhoon, or cyclone, wind speeds must reach at least 74 miles per hour (119 kilometers per hour).
• If winds reach speeds of 111 miles per hour (179 kilometers per hour), it is upgraded to an “intense hurricane.”
• If a typhoon hits 150 miles per hour (241 kilometers per hour) it becomes a “super typhoon.”
• Hurricanes, named after the Caribbean god of evil, Hurrican, are regions of low atmospheric pressure (aka depression). They develop over warm water and use it as an energy source; lose strength as they move over land; can create tornadoes, high waves and widespread flooding.
• According to NOAA’s National Hurricane Center, the average hurricane eye—the still center where pressure is lowest and air temperature is highest—stretches 30 miles (48 kilometers) across, with some growing as large as 120 miles (200 kilometers) wide.
• The eye of a hurricane can be anywhere from 2 miles (3.2 kilometers) in diameter to over 200 miles (320 kilometers) but they are usually around 30 miles (48 kilometers).
• The winds around the eye of a hurricane are usually the strongest; weather in the eye of a hurricane is usually calm.
• Hurricanes have led to the death of around 2 million people over the last 200 years.
• The 1970 Bhola Cyclone that struck Bangladesh killed over 300,000 people.

In 2005, Hurricane Katrina killed over 1800 people in the United States and caused around $80 billion dollars worth of property damage. The city of New Orleans was hit hard with levee breaches leading to around 80% of the city being flooded. 

Anticipating nothing

Monday, Tuesday – between hoping, praying and waiting, there was nothing much else to do. It felt like Estragon and Vladimir Waiting for Godot. Remembering the existentialist play became playtime. Samuel Beckett’s mystifying classic revolutionized a new genre – the Theater of the Absurd, because the author refused to explain what the plot and characters were about. 

Despite the author’s reluctance to clarify the “who, what and why” of the drama, most analysts agreed that Godot is actually God. The curtain rises and falls with Estragon and Vladimir waiting for Godot, wanting to leave but compelled to stay. Writing in the post-modernist age, questions about the meaning of life and the existence of God were the profound, unanswerable questions of the time.

For those with faith, it is not necessary to “see” God in order to believe that He is watching out for us. The fact that our country survived Ruby with far less lives and property loss is testament to His existence. Even the weather conditions that caused the typhoon to die down could be attributed to Divine intervention.

Grateful for everything

The Philippine Atmospheric Geophysical and Astronomical Services Agency (PAGASA) predicted the track of Ruby more accurately than the high-tech US and Japan weather agencies. While storms can easily be predicted with the help of satellites and computer models, predicting its path is trickier. PAGASA hit the nail on the head. Maybe now, more Filipinos and media can be a bit more supportive and have a little more faith in their expertise.

The joint agencies of DSWD and DILG, along with the affected LGUs also got their act together, enabling the largest evacuation and relief effort, working tirelessly and seamlessly. Despite the usual criticisms from the typical hacks who don’t bother to check facts before reporting, the disaster response to Ruby was palpably better – painful lessons learned from Yolanda. President Aquino personally gave direct orders for all agencies to be present and alert. As impossible as it seemed, politics was set aside. 

The debate as to whether human-caused global warming is making hurricanes stronger or more frequent is ongoing. In fact, the number of Category 4 and 5 hurricanes has nearly doubled worldwide from 1970-2000. Moreover, both the duration of tropical cyclones and their strongest wind speeds have increased by about 50% over the past 50 years. Although there has been no connection established between global warming and hurricances, in theory, warmer atmospheric temperatures lead to warmer sea surface temperatures, which in turn support stronger hurricanes.

Meanwhile, the People’s Climate Marchers are pushing for more commitment from world leaders to address Global Warming at the UN Climate Summit. 

We are appealing, wishing and waiting for real action to address global warming. Let’s hope we are not just waiting for Godot. – Rappler.com