Filipino women of reproductive age (15-49) will have 1.9 children throughout their reproductive years, an almost one birth reduction from the total fertility rate (TFR) of 3.0 in 2013. This is the finding of the 2022 National Demographic and Health Survey. The TFR is a measure of fertility that indicates the average number of children that a woman would bear at current age-specific fertility rates. 

With the recent NDHS result on fertility level, the Philippines has now joined the list of Asian countries that have below-replacement fertility rates: Japan, South Korea, Singapore, Thailand, and Vietnam.  The replacement fertility is equivalent to a TFR of 2.1, the average number of children per woman at which a population exactly replaces itself from one generation to the next, assuming there is no migration. 

Ever since the first demographic survey started estimating the TFR in the country in 1973, demographers have been monitoring the trend in fertility. From a TFR of 6.0 in 1973, there has been a gradual decline in fertility throughout the years. However, compared to its neighboring countries in Asia, the fertility decline in the Philippines can be characterized as consistent but slow. The 2001 UN Medium variant projection, for instance, estimated that all East Asian countries would reach either replacement level or below replacement level fertility by 2010. Indonesia and Vietnam were also projected to have a 2.1 TFR by 2010, while India, Malaysia, the Philippines, and Myanmar, by 2020.  But as early as 2002, Vietnam’s TFR was already at 1.9, while Indonesia’s was at 2.4 in 2017, lower than the 2.7 TFR of the Philippines during the same period.

From a population program perspective, the below-replacement fertility is a welcome development. But it also raises important questions: what led to the sharp decline between 2017 and 2022, and what are the implications of below-replacement fertility to the country? 

Fertility rates have been declining globally for years, and most often, this is accompanied by sustained economic growth. Such was the experience of countries such as South Korea, Thailand, and Singapore.  Along with improved socioeconomic status, there are other determinants of fertility, for example, the use of contraceptives, timing of marital formation, and the couple’s fertility preference. 

In the case of the Philippines, there have been continuous efforts to implement programs and policies to address population growth. The passage of the RH law 10 years ago was considered a major step in empowering women to make their own decisions about their reproductive health. The law guarantees universal and free access to nearly all modern contraceptive methods at government health centers. It also mandates the inclusion of reproductive health in the basic education curriculum. But the achievement of below-replacement-level fertility, without a doubt, was amplified by the COVID-19 pandemic. The lockdown and mobility restrictions have limited opportunities for socializing, increased feelings of uncertainty, as well as fear of health consequences of infection. Thus, couples may decide to delay having a child in periods of high uncertainty.  

By and large, the reduction in fertility is found mostly among women below the age of 25. The age-specific fertility rate (ASFR) among 15-19 in 2022 was almost half of the 2017 ASFR (from 47 to 25), while among the 20-24 age group, ASFR decreased by 36%. 

In addition, the number of births registered from the Civil Registration and Vital Statistics System showed a declining trend over a 10-year period: 2012-2021 (Table 1), but the biggest decline was observed during the years 2019-20, and 2020-21. Marriage registration, on the other hand, showed an inconsistent pattern. There was a 44% reduction in the number of registered marriages during the first year of the pandemic but has bounced back in the second, with a 48% increase. 

The sustained decline in the number of births despite the increase in the number of registered marriages between 2020-2021 underscores the difficulty of establishing a causal link between fertility and nuptiality. The increasing share of fertility from unmarried women, mostly adolescents, provides evidence delinking nuptiality, sex, and fertility in the country.

It will take several years to see the effects of below-replacement fertility. Because of population momentum, the population will continue to grow in the coming years despite low fertility. It also remains to be seen whether the low fertility rate will be sustained. If the decrease in births was due to the pandemic, what happens when the pandemic is finally over? Will we see a return to high fertility rate, which implies that couples were only postponing births? 

Fertility is the major driver of population change in the Philippines; thus, the need to understand the implications of changing fertility behavior of women. If the trend of low fertility continues for several generations, we will have a population with a lesser share of young people and an increasing share of older ages. With fewer births each year, the working-age population will have fewer younger people to support, resulting in a demographic window of opportunity for rapid economic growth if the right social and economic policies are developed. Age-structural change can accelerate economic growth, as observed in Thailand, whose significant fertility decline provided a critical first step toward achieving the economic benefits of a demographic dividend. 

If the low fertility level is not sustained and bounces back to pre-pandemic level, we may miss out on the expected gains of a demographic dividend. The challenge for the Marcos administration is to leverage this gain to advance its development agenda.

Demographic trends are important considerations in crafting policies and programs on human capital investments, social protection, health services, and overall socioeconomic development. And as we deal with the reality of lower fertility and changing demographic age structure, we also need to learn from the experiences of other countries that have been struggling with the implications of very low fertility. – Rappler.com

Elma P. Laguna is Asst. Professor of Demography of the Population Institute, College of Social Sciences and Philosophy, University of the Philippines-Diliman.

Maria Midea M. Kabamalan is Professor of Demography of the Population Institute, College of Social Sciences and Philosophy, University of the Philippines-Diliman.

Grace T. Cruz is Professor of Demography and Director of the Population Institute, College of Social Sciences and Philosophy, University of the Philippines-Diliman.