The Philippines has the most stringent travel restrictions in ASEAN, and one of the highest in the world. This is contributing to a massive economic downturn, which is causing widespread misery, especially amongst the poor. 

With a COVID-19 vaccine on the horizon, should the Philippines wait before opening borders? Waiting could end up being even more costly because turning vaccines into vaccinations to achieve herd immunity will take a long time. Reaching herd immunity may be required before allowing quarantine-free travel because those vaccinated may still be infectious, despite being immune from the disease.

Before we achieve herd immunity, the Philippines and other ASEAN countries should start working towards an ASEAN-wide travel bubble by expanding, upgrading, and consolidating the plethora of unilateral and bilateral travel arrangements that currently operate in the region.

Travel corridors or “green lanes” are the most common in the region, which allow reciprocal travel with testing but without quarantine for select groups like businessmen under strict conditions, such as pre-arranged itineraries. To have a significant impact on the economy, however, air travel passes unilaterally extend these terms to all travellers. In ASEAN, Singapore has been leading the effort in pursuing air travel passes with partners that have controlled community transmission, like Brunei Darussalam and Vietnam. Singapore has more to lose by doing this than the Philippines, because it risks a new wave of community transmission. The Philippines does not have to worry about that risk. 

For this to happen, perceptions of health risks associated with opening borders need to converge across countries. Some governments need to overcome an inherent bias against opening borders. That is, even when differences in infection rates suggest that inter-country movement is less risky than intra-country movement, borders remain mostly closed while easing of domestic movement continues. The factors underlying this bias need to be addressed before travel corridors can be upgraded to travel passes, and then travel bubbles. The economic benefits of travel passes could be increased if the partner would reciprocate to create a two-way quarantine-free travel bubble.  

After that, consolidating these bilateral arrangements into a regional one – a travel balloon – could be pursued. For instance, the Singapore-Vietnam or Singapore-Brunei travel pass arrangements, once successfully upgraded to a bubble, could be pilot-tested to include other countries with similar  infection rates. It could start by consolidating the two, so that travel between the spokes, Brunei and Vietnam, as well as with the hub, Singapore, is quarantine-free. It could then be progressively expanded to include Cambodia, Laos, and Thailand, for instance. Such an expanded travel bubble, or travel balloon, involving up to 6 ASEAN countries that currently have controlled community transmission could magnify the economic benefits without significantly raising health risks, if implemented according to a plan.  

The plan should involve harmonization of COVID-19 screening and quarantine protocols to preserve the integrity of the risk mitigation controls across countries, while facilitating seamless movement to reap maximum benefits from the increase in scale. Protocols such as exemption of quarantine should be mutually recognized across participating countries to avoid duplication and to encourage movement between them. Mutual recognition should increase both intra and extra regional flows.  

For example, Thailand’s recent Special Tourist Visa, which opens up its tourism sector to the world but does not waive quarantine, will be more beneficial to Thailand and the region if it was part of the proposed travel balloon. This is because a European tourist, for instance, is more likely to visit Thailand and other countries in the region if the two-week quarantine on arrival in Thailand did not have to be repeated in Cambodia, Laos or Vietnam. The deterrent effect of quarantine on arrival is reduced when it enables travel to more than one country in the region.

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[ANALYSIS] Why it’s time to open borders

An ASEAN-wide travel balloon covering all 10 members is unlikely at this stage because of significant differences in infection rates. It is unlikely that countries that have controlled community transmission will open-up to countries like the Philippines, that have not. The ASEAN countries that have higher infection rates could, however, choose to recognize the quarantine observed within the 6-country travel balloon, even if reciprocity is denied them. That is, Indonesia, Malaysia, Myanmar, and the Philippines could participate by forming air travel passes with the countries in the travel balloon. Even without reciprocity, these 4 countries could benefit economically because they would receive a larger number of travelers on a relatively safe basis through the one-way arrangement. But first they must be convinced that these benefits are there to be had on a relatively safe basis. The European tourist mentioned earlier could finish the holiday in the region in the Philippines, if there was an air travel pass between the Philippines and the travel balloon.

The agreement should include an open accession clause, which would allow new members like the Philippines to join if health conditions improve to meet those specified in the agreement. Similarly, the agreement should enable the suspension of members should health conditions deteriorate to an extent deemed unsafe for quarantine-free travel. The recent deferment of the Singapore-Hong Kong travel bubble attests to the ability of such arrangements to have built-in safety clauses that kick-in as soon as circumstances warrant. 

At the recently concluded ASEAN Summit in Hanoi, ASEAN Leaders recognized the potential that travel bubbles present in safely opening borders to promote regional economic recovery. A cautious and incremental approach in moving towards an ASEAN travel balloon can give a fillip to economic growth, yet have enough safeguards that will kick in should infections head north again. The wait for the vaccine may be over, but neither the Philippines nor ASEAN can afford to wait for it to work before opening its borders. – Rappler.com

Jayant Menon is Visiting Senior Fellow at ISEAS-Yusof Ishak Institute, Singapore, and former Lead Economist of the Asian Development Bank.