Macron’s party in driver’s seat before French parliament election

PARIS, France – French President Emmanuel Macron’s party heads into the first round of parliamentary elections on Sunday, June 11, apparently in a strong position to win the majority he needs to push through his ambitious reforms.

A number of opinion polls give Macron’s Republique en Marche (Republic on the Move, REM) party around 30% of the vote, which would put it in the driving seat to secure an absolute majority in the second round on June 18.

With Macron’s party siphoning off support from the traditional political forces of left and right – the Socialists of his predecessor Francois Hollande and the conservative Republicans – the elections could radically re-draw France’s political map.

On Friday, June 9, the final day of campaigning before the first round, Prime Minister Edouard Philippe urged voters to back the new president.

“The question that the French people must answer on Sunday is: do they want to give the president and the government he named a sufficient majority to begin the work of turning around the country?” he said on Europe 1 radio.

Macron’s party could be heading for as many as 400 seats in the 577-seat National Assembly, according to some polls, a crushing victory for a president who many observers were predicting just weeks ago might struggle to win a majority.

Philippe is a conservative in Macron’s government of left and right that the 39-year-old centrist assembled in a bid to break with decades of tribalist left-right politics.

The prime minister’s party, the Republicans, complained Friday that such domination could be harmful.

“I don’t think it would be healthy for the democratic debate over the next five years,” said Francois Baroin, who is leading the Republicans in the election.

Le Pen’s National Front meanwhile could struggle to gain 15 seats nationally, a score which would be an additional humiliation for the anti-EU Le Pen after she was soundly beaten by Macron in the presidential election.

In tune

Polls appear to suggest that Macron is in tune with the wishes of French voters to see deep changes to the political class. Many of REM’s 530 candidates come from civil society and have never run for office before.

Macron’s reform agenda is broad. The key plank is to build on an overhaul of the labour market that the previous Socialist government began – measures that brought hundreds of thousands of demonstrators onto the streets last year.

The government has said it plans to fast-track legislation through parliament using executive decrees in a country where many see the cost of hiring and firing as a brake on growth.

Unemployment, the issue that dogged Hollande’s presidency, is around 10%.

Macron and Philippe have already held softly-softly initial talks with the unions about their proposed reforms, without apparently revealing much of their hand.

‘Must convince Germany’

Internationally, Germany has welcomed Macron’s election as a chance to re-invigorate the European Union as Britain begins negotiations to leave the bloc – although Prime Minister Theresa May’s failure to win an absolute majority in Thursday’s general election risks complicating the Brexit timetable.

The time could also be ripe for Europe’s old power couple to renew their romance, with German Chancellor Angela Merkel’s relationship with US President Donald Trump clearly strained.

“Emmanuel Macron’s election gives Europe new, but fragile, hope,” said veteran international affairs commentator Dominique Moisi. 

“Trump and Brexit could act as a catalyst for the Franco-German pairing.”

However, Macron must show France’s European partner that he can deliver, Moisi warned.

“France must first of all turn its intentions into actions to convince Germany that, this time, it will follow through on its reforms,” he added. – Rappler.com