NSCB sees better Q1 growth

MANILA, Philippines – Philippine growth in the first quarter of 2013 could be better than the previous quarter, based on leading economic indicators (LEI) measured by the National Statistical Coordination Board (NSCB).

The NSCB said the composite LEI index, while still in negative territory, improved to -0.008 from -0.013 in the fourth quarter of 2012.

LEI was jointly developed by NSCB and the National Economic and Development Authority to serve as basis for short-term forecasting of macroeconomic activity in the country.

“The top two positive and top two negative contributors to the composite LEI for the first quarter of 2013 are: visitor arrivals and number of new businesses; and terms of trade index and wholesale price index, respectively,” NSCB said.

“In the Q4 (fourth quarter) 2012 LEI estimation, the top two positive contributors were terms of trade index and consumer price index, while the top negative contributors were visitor arrivals and hotel occupancy rate,” it added.

Negative contributors include:

• Terms of Trade Index
• Wholesale price index
• Total merchandise imports
• Electric energy consumption
• Hotel occupancy rate
• Money supply

Positive contributors include:

• Visitor arrivals
• Number of new businesses
• Foreign exchange rate
• Stock price index
• Consumer price index

– with reports from Cai Ordinario/Rappler.com