What will the year 2100 look like?

 

In the eyes of global energy company Shell, two main visions could play out, based on their latest energy outlooks that explore economic, political and social forces that could shape our world.

 

Shell recently released the “New Lens Scenarios” energy outlook, which uses 3 types of “lenses” to take a peek into our present issues, and what our future could look like.

 

Says the company: “Shell scenarios go beyond traditional energy outlooks – they cover a broad set of drivers and trends in economics, geopolitics, social change, and environmental stresses on water and climate. They are based on plausible assumptions and quantification, and include the impact of different patterns of individual and collective choices.”

 

 

The first two lenses help us understand our current issues, and how our world would respond to it:

 

 

– Paradox lenses: As the name implies, it identifies 3 paradoxes we face in our society, and how we might possibly address these. One lens shows us how economic development raises our standard of living, yet puts more strain on our planet; another shows the slow decision-making process when leaders gather in bigger groups, yet we get better results; and the last describes how a “connected” society is also raising mistrust in information and fear of too much data.

 

 

– Pathway lenses: When a crisis develops, there are two possible routes for leaders to take to respond to it, according to the second lens, the Pathway lenses. They might adapt and reform, or delay action until the last minute.

 

 

On Monday, June 10, experts led by Dr Cho-Oon Khong, Chief Political Analyst of the Shell Strategy and Scenarios Team CHO, will be discussing these issues and more at the Shell New Lens Scenarios Forum, to be held at the Mandarin Oriental in Makati City, Philippines.

Watch the teaser below:

 

 

 

After peering through our society’s issues and how we face them, we now take a look at what the future might hold for our planet – and this is what we see in the third Lens type, the “Panorama” lens. This fleshes out the two distinct directions our world could take in the next few decades.

 

 

In the first scenario, the world is more orderly, yet economic growth is a bit on the slow side, mainly due to control of governments in introducing changes and policies.  

 

 

Under this scenario, called “Mountains,” the world is relatively stable, where “governments and multilateral institutions embark on a series of measured political, financial and economic reforms.” This, in turn, will slow down the pace of economic development. “Some emerging economies see growth plateau after a significant proportion of their populations reach the so-called “middle-income” trap, which also weakens social mobility,” the company said.

 

 

Power continues its shift from West to East under Mountains; as this continues, the US and China join forces, while emerging powers such as India, Turkey, South Africa and Brazil also exert greater influence in the global order.

 

 

In the second scenario, the world is more volatile, economies more prosperous, and government more limited, in what the company called as the “Oceans” path. 

 

 

It’s a more turbulent world; Shell sees ambitious reforms, driven by frustrations and worries of the middle class in most countries. The civil society is more empowered, and in turn limits the ability of governments to impose policy changes and cooperation with other governments.

 

 

Despite this, the global economy becomes stronger: higher GDPs; rapid globalization is “unfettered by protectionism”; emerging and advanced economies grow and thrive.

 

 

Despite seemingly different paths, Shell says both scenarios are showing major implications for policymakers and governments, particularly in energy and environment issues.

 

 

Shell foresees a “loose’ energy game” under the Mountains scenario: Weakening demand growth due to a sluggish economy, rising energy supplies due to government policies, and moderate prices. There is a shift in global transport and infrastructure, resulting in more compact cities, a diverse energy mix, and widespread use of carbon capture and storage (CCS).

 

 

On the other hand, the oil giant sees higher energy prices driving the energy sector for decades under Oceans. They describe a “long liquid fuels game,” where oil is king for the most part of the period, while other energy sources are adapted slowly. 

 

 

The company says the two scenarios will be “very challenging” from a climate perspective. Both forecasts “show a level of CO2 emissions in 2050 that are higher than we all would all like to see” – but it is not the whole story. We need to look at the total cumulative CO2 emissions over time for us to understand its implications better, the company says. 

 

 

“What the scenarios clearly show is that earlier action makes a big difference,” the company says.

 

 

Says Shell: “The scenarios highlight how the choices made by governments, businesses and individuals in coming years will have a profound impact on the health and prosperity of the world. Above all, they reinforce the urgency of addressing the world’s resource and environmental stresses.”

 

 

The company adds: “The magnitude of these challenges means that we will need to address them intelligently and in unison. That calls for new and deeper forms of partnership between business, governments, academia and civil society. Energy companies may possess advanced technical knowhow, but government departments have greater expertise in regulating new technologies.”

 

 

The Netherlands-based energy giant has been developing these scenarios to help in their strategic planning in the past decades. Experts from various fields, from academia, industry and government, have contributed to these scenarios.

 

 

Shell’s scenarios “help the company see opportunities and risks more clearly, and use those insights to make informed business decisions.”

 

 

For more information, log on to Shell.com/scenarios. — Rappler.com