How Eduard Folayang can beat ONE FC champ Shinya Aoki

MANILA, Philippines – Eduard Folayang’s journey to his first title shot in ONE Championship since joining the promotion 5 years ago can be best described as a roller coaster ride with its up and downs

Despite the many wild turns in his 9-year prizefighting career, the 32-year-old Baguio City native finally received a much sought-after crack at the ONE Championship lightweight belt as he is set to square off with longtime division kingpin Shinya Aoki in the main event of the “Defending Honor” card on November 11 in Singapore.

Even if his forthcoming title tilt is a cause for celebration, a potential nightmare looms over the entire ordeal as he faces a tall order in Aoki.

Aoki has long been widely regarded as the most dominant lightweight in Asia for the better part of the last decade having had 46 professional bouts while strutting his wares in various mixed martial arts (MMA) promotions such as ONE Championship, DREAM, Bellator, Strikeforce and Shooto.

With the 33-year-old Japanese owning an outstanding curriculum vitae, Folayang is pegged as the underdog in a scheduled 5-round lightweight bout.

Although on paper it may appear far-fetched that Folayang can pull off an upset victory over Aoki, the champion still has loopholes in his overall game that the homegrown Filipino talent can prey on.

Keep it standing

Known by his cage moniker “Tobikan Judan” or “The Grandmaster of Flying Submissions” due to his spectacular submission victories, Aoki has an unusual fighting style, which is heavily reliant on his specialization in grappling. He is also famous for his creative approach to submissions.

Aoki’s stand-up arsenal, meanwhile, is entirely dedicated to taking his opponent to the ground, utilizing chain combinations of various Judo and wrestling techniques.

With Folayang being an experienced Wushu Sanshou practitioner, he excels in the toe-to-toe trade, bombarding his foes with looping right hands and different variations of foot-strikes.

As Folayang crosses paths with a grappler in Aoki, testing the Japanese combatant’s notorious rubber guard is not exactly a good idea for the Filipino fighter.

In a striker versus grappler showdown, maintaining action on the feet is key. Tearing a page out of Eddie Alvarez’s game plan when he beat Aoki in their April 2012 rematch at Bellator 66 might prove to be beneficial for Folayang.

Although Aoki persistently invited Alvarez into his spidery guard early on, the latter stuck to his blueprint and refused to commit to following Aoki to the ground unlike in their December 2008 meeting, where he was submitted via a 92-second heel hook.

 

It was completely a different story in the second showdown as Alvarez compelled Aoki to stand and bang with him, pummeling the Japanese MMA prodigy into surrender.

 

If there is a good fighter for Folayang to choose to utilize his bread-and-butter skills, it would be Aoki.

When Folayang enters the ONE Championship cage on November 11, he will be at a slight height and length disadvantage as the Japanese standout is approximately 5 centimeters taller.

Taking Aoki’s physical edge into consideration, Folayang must preserve a precise distance and create the space needed to land his ferocious strikes while making it easier to breakaway in closed-quarter sequences. This is especially important with Aoki effectively using clinches to achieve takedowns.

Frustrate Shinya Aoki and bank on takedown defense

There are only a handful of combatants who have managed to outwit Aoki in the mental aspect of battle. Gilbert Melendez is one of the few who were able to take the Japanese veteran completely off his game.

Melendez cruised to a unanimous decision triumph in his 2010 Strikeforce lightweight title defense opposite Aoki by sustaining a tactical on-the-feet strategy to stay clear of danger from Aoki’s impeccable ground game.

 

As the ploy consistently played over and over throughout the 5-round duel, Aoki’s desperation increased with each passing minute, giving Melendez leeway in the dying seconds of the final frame to swarm the Japanese with hammerfists and solid punches.

Melendez, who is currently signed with the Ultimate Fighting Championship, proved that Aoki loses focus if his foe avoids biting the bait of his set play.

In Folayang’s two most bouts, he made it a staple to exasperate his opposition by harshly firing his power shots, at the same time incorporating his recently improved takedown defense.

Folayang picked apart Tetsuya Yamada with his deadly signature attacks while sprawling out of the desperate takedown attempts to claim a lopsided decision win last January.

Against Adrian Pang last August, Folayang was calculated and composed, patiently waiting for the right moment to unleash his signature shots and did not allow himself to be overpowered on the mat.

That being said, Folayang is nowhere near perfect with his takedown defense, and he will need every last bit of his newfound skills against a high-level grappler such as Aoki.

Applying his takedown defense as a gambit, Folayang could emulate Yuichiro Nagashima’s feat in his December 2010 exhibition match against Aoki. Nagashima knocked out his compatriot with a flying knee after Aoki’s constant attempts to land a takedown.

 

Don’t count out Folayang yet on the mat

Aoki is a certified submission wizard, coming out on top in 25 of his 39 career wins by way of tapout.

Many are expecting that once Folayang falls into the Japanese’s comfort zone, he will be having difficulties getting out of harm’s way.

However, Folayang has recently reinvented himself over the past few years and has transitioned from being a pure striker to an all-around MMA competitor as evidenced in his last two professional outings, where he displayed on-point sprawls and was able to sinuously execute sweeps and guards as well as showcase sturdy top control.

Folayang should be aware of the importance in safeguarding a strong top position versus an active guard player like Aoki, who is very comfortable fighting off his back.

The 5-foot-9 Team Lakay representative should draw inspiration from Joachim Hansen’s tactic in defeating Aoki when the two highly-decorated combatants locked horns in July 2008.

 

Things look bright for Folayang based on his recent performances and maturity as a fighter, and the chances of securing an escape out of Aoki’s submission wheelhouse are on a fair scale.

But beating a revered submissions specialist like Aoki at his own game remains a long shot for Folayang.

This is the moment

Folayang is not Alvarez or Melendez, but he is capable of shocking the world by walking out of the Singapore Indoor Stadium with his hand raised if he can capitalize on Aoki’s flaws.

The odds are stacked against Folayang because he is up against a 13-year veteran who has completed 5-round bouts on various occasions. In addition, Aoki is very accustomed to a world championship-level match.

But if Folayang can manage to elude Aoki’s pace and increase his work-rate inside the cage, he can have the gold-plated strap wrapped around his waist.

2016 has already been an outstanding year for Folayang. Nothing will be sweeter than putting the year to a close as a world champion, which is worthy for a man regarded as the face of Philippine MMA. – Rappler.com