Court verdict due on Prabowo’s election challenge

JAKARTA, Indonesia – The Constitutional Court is expected to issue a verdict on Thursday afternoon, August 21, rejecting former general Prabowo Subianto’s lawsuit challenging the results of Indonesia’s presidential election.

At the same time, Prabowo is expected to reject the court’s decision, despite stating several times he would respect it. (READ: Prabowo’s lawyer: Our evidence is too strong to reject)

It’s been a month since the General Elections Commission (KPU) declared Joko “Jokowi” Widodo and running mate Jusuf Kalla the winners of the divisive presidential election with 53.15% of the votes cast, with an 8.4 million lead over Prabowo and his running mate Hatta Rajasa.

Prabowo rejected those results, claiming “massive, systemic and structural” fraud, but analysts say his camp had a hard time proving this in court. (READ: Prabowo’s weak suit)

“They are going to throw out the suit,” said Tobias Basuki, a political analyst from Jakarta-based think-tank the Center for Strategic and International Studies, adding that the evidence was “very weak.”

Potential violence 

Statements from Prabowo’s camp over the past few days have indicated the former general’s fight for the presidency would not end with a loss on at the Constitutional Court, even though its decision can no longer be appealed.

In front of thousands of supporters in Bandung on Tuesday, August 19, Prabowo addressed mothers who he said were weeping over his loss on July 9. 

“Don’t cry, this struggle is just beginning,” he said, insisting they will eventually win.

Tens of thousands of police and military personnel have been deployed for Thursday’s decision amid concerns Prabowo’s supporters will resort to violence. In the past, Prabowo’s camp has always made public pronouncements against violence, but there are no similar calls this time.

“If we tell them not to take action, then what will happen is a fake reconciliation [with Jokowi]. These people may get frustrated and they could explode at any time,” one of Prabowo’s lawyers, Habiburokhman, said according to the Jakarta Post.  

But political analyst Dodi Ambardi doubts there will be widespread chaos.

“It could be ugly if Prabowo gives an order to his supporters to fight security forces. However, the security forces have been prepared to handle the situation. So if there is a clash between the two, it would be limited in the area of the Constitutional Court. I don’t think that it will spread out the city, let alone the archipelago,” he told Rappler.

What’s next?

Regardless of what happens on Thursday, “there won’t be any reconciliation” with Jokowi’s camp, Prabowo’s brother Hasyim Djojohadikusumo said on Aug. 14, according to Tempo. (READ: The betrayal at the heart of Prabowo’s challenge)

Aside from the lawsuit, Prabowo has also filed both administrative and criminal charges against KPU, though these are not expected to change the election outcome either.

In the political arena, party members and allies in the House of Representatives have begun plans to set up a special inquiry into the election results. This could potentially be more disruptive, as Prabowo’s coalition currently controls the majority in the legislature and could also block Jokowi’s agenda.  

However, some of the parties in Prabowo’s so-called permanent coalition are expected to jump ship and announce support for the president-elect after the court verdict on Thursday. – additional reporting from Agence France-Presse/Rappler.com