Agri sector growth seen at 3.2%-4.2% in 2014

MANILA, Philippines – The agriculture sector is expected to grow by 3.2% to 4.2% this year, on the back of the strong crop, liverstock and poultry subsectors.

The growth range is higher than the 1.15% growth recorded in 2013, but lower than the government’s original target of 3% to 5%.

“We’ve set this growth forecast considering the abnormal changes in climate and the need for greater investments in infrastructure. Accomplishments in agriculture cannot just leapfrog,” said Agriculture Secretary Proceso Alcala on the sidelines of the 2014 Philippine Economic Briefing on Tuesday, March 18.

In a report released during the briefing, the National Economic and Development Authority (NEDA) said agriculture’s subsectors are expected to surpass last year’s growth rates.

The crop subsector would likely register a growth of between 4% and 5% this year, against 0.09% in 2013. The livestock subsector is projected to grow by 1.2% to 2.5%, against 1.75% last year, while the poultry subsector is seen growing by 4.2% to 5.2%, versus 4.2% in 2013.

In the same report, NEDA said the Philippines would be able to attain self-sufficiency in rice by 2015, with a total palay production of 20.50 million metric tons (MT). The country eyed to be self-sufficient in the staple last year, but the goal was derailed by a series of strong typhoons that ravaged rice production areas.

Bright spots

The livestock and poultry subsectors, meanwhile, are “bright spots” in the farm industry. They remain free from animal diseases like foot-and-mouth disease and avian influenza, which warrant international trade restrictions.

The Agriculture department said this “asset” would make the subsectors competitive when free trade within Southeast Asia is enforced by 2015.

In its Swine Situation and Outlook for 2014, the Bureau of Agricultural Statistics (BAS) said domestic demand for pork would rise by 5.17% this year from a year ago, while supply would grow by 3.25%.

BAS said a pork surplus of 925 MT is expected in the first quarter of 2014, followed by a deficit of 6,027 MT in the second quarter. Surpluses of 13,955 MT and 23,671 MT are likely in the 3rd and 4th quarters, respectively.

Hog production in 2013 was placed at 2 million MT in live weight, up by 1.95% year-on-year. This year, production is expected to grow by 2.46%.

Broiler production, which has been continuously high, would outpace demand this year. Because of this, retailers continue to enjoy low farmgate prices.

In its broiler Situation and Outlook for this year, BAS said a surplus of 68,994 MT is seen this year as “the expected growth in broiler supply is much higher than the expected growth in demand.”

Total broiler meat supply is seen to reach 967,768 MT this year, while demand may reach 898,824 MT. – Rappler.com