Global stocks hit record after US inflation data

A gauge of global equity markets rose to record highs on Tuesday, April 13, led by surging technology-related stocks, as Treasury bond yields eased after US consumer price data for March showed the pace of inflation was not rising wildly.

The consumer price index rose 0.6%, the biggest increase since August 2012, as rising vaccinations and fiscal stimulus unleashed pent-up demand. But the data is unlikely to change Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell’s view that higher inflation in coming months will be transitory.

“We’re just going to have a temporary flame-up in prices but there will not be any structural inflation that’s here to stay,” said Carlo Franchini, head of institutional clients at Banca Ifigest SpA in Milan. “Fed comments continue to be conciliatory.”

The dollar fell and gold prices, a traditional inflation hedge, rebounded from their lowest in more than a week. Equity markets took the data in stride, especially technology-heavy indexes whose stocks can be affected by rising debt costs.

MSCI’s gauge of equity performance in 50 countries advanced 0.34% to an all-time peak, led by gains in Apple, Microsoft, and Amazon, the top 3 holdings of the benchmark index.

Apple rose 2.4%, Microsoft 1%, and Amazon 0.6%.

On Wall Street, the S&P 500 gained 0.33% as it also set intra-day and record closing highs, while the Nasdaq Composite added 1.05%. The Dow Jones Industrial Average fell 0.2%.

Johnson & Johnson’s shares slid 1.34% after US federal health agencies recommended pausing the rollout of its COVID-19 vaccine for at least a few days, raising fears of the recovery’s setback after 6 women developed rare blood clots.

In Europe, the pan-regional STOXX 600 index closed up 0.12%, with luxury and other consumer stocks leading gains, followed by technology stocks.

Asian stocks overnight gained support on China trade data that showed exports in dollar terms rose more than 30% in March from a year earlier, short of expectations. Imports jumped 38%, the fastest pace in 4 years, suggesting a post-pandemic recovery in Chinese spending.

MSCI’s broadest index of Asia-Pacific shares outside Japan gave up most of its gains and closed up 0.1%. China’s blue-chip index fell 0.2%.

Treasury yields are being influenced by increased foreign demand while low bond yields and the cost of debt will buoy higher-risk equity assets, said Steven Oh, global head of credit and fixed income at PineBridge Investments.

“The Treasury market reaction [to CPI] was effectively a collective yawn in continuing the trend that in the near term, market yields are largely unrelated to economic data,” Oh said.

“Inflation and economic data matters in determining Treasury yields, but it’s been and will be a secondary factor for now.”

Benchmark 10-year notes fell 5.6 basis points to yield 1.6198%, well below a 14-month high of 1.776% hit March 30. The yield curve flattened further after the last of this week’s auctions – $24 billion of 30-year bonds – was met with solid demand, a result analysts at Jefferies called “fabulous.”

The dollar briefly spiked on the CPI data before reversing course and dipping to 3-week lows after surging to multi-month peaks in March as markets anticipated fiscal stimulus would spur faster US economic growth and higher inflation.

The dollar index fell 0.29%, with the euro up 0.33% to $1.1948. The Japanese yen strengthened 0.31% versus the greenback at 109.05 per dollar.

Boston Fed President Eric Rosengren said on Monday, April 12, the US economy could see a significant rebound this year due to looser money and fiscal policy but the job market still faced weakness.

With inflation still below the Fed’s 2% target rate, the current “highly accommodative” monetary policy remained appropriate, he said.

Bitcoin hit a record of $63,769, extending its 2021 rally to new heights a day before the listing of Coinbase shares in the United States.

US gold futures settled up 0.9% at $1,747.6 an ounce.

Oil prices rose on the strong Chinese import data. But the rally was capped by concerns that pauses on the J&J vaccine could delay the economic recovery and limit oil demand growth.

Brent crude futures rose 39 cents to settle at $63.67 a barrel. US crude futures settled up 48 cents at $60.18 a barrel. – Rappler.com