COVID-19 is spreading faster in virus epicenter Metro Manila as Christmas approaches, an expert warned on Monday, December 14.

In a text message to Rappler, University of the Philippines professor Guido David of the Octa Research Group said the virus is reproducing beyond the recommended threshold for now in the Philippines’ capital region.

The reproduction rate (R) – the number of people that one COVID-19 positive case can infect – is now at 1.06 in Metro Manila, according to David.

“We will need to brace ourselves for this holiday increase,” he said.

Experts have said that the goal is to keep R below 1 to contain virus transmission until a COVID-19 vaccine becomes available. An R above 1 means that the the virus is spreading faster.

Warning

In a virtual press briefing on Monday morning, Health Undersecretary Maria Rosario Vergeire said that based on their estimation, R in Metro Manila is still below 1 or at 0.94.

“Ang sinasabi naman ng Octa (What Octa was saying), this is modeling, which is based on scientific assumption. Kapag ganiyan po, titingnan natin kung magkakaroon ng accuracy kung sakali in the coming months (Based on their projections, we will see if this will be accurate in the coming months),” Vergeire said.

Vergeire said they have been coordinating with experts and modelers for projections to serve as guide on how to prepare for possible surge in cases.

“Ang punto naman ng Octa Research Group ay (The point of the Octa Research Group is) to warn people and to educate them that if we continue on this kind of mobility, ang projection nila ay tataas ng husto ang ating mga kaso (their projection is that the cases will spike),” she added.

The OCTA Research Group earlier noted a spike in cases in the provinces as Christmas approaches. 

In its report published December 9, the group said these provinces included Benguet, Isabela, Bataan, Leyte, Ilocos Norte, Pangasinan, and Cagayan, where increases in new cases were observed from December 1 to 7.

On December 9, the health department told private hospitals to start increasing beds for COVID-19 patients in preparation for a possible surge in coronavirus cases after the holidays. (READ: PGH, Lung Center brace for possible surge of COVID-19 cases after holidays)

As of Monday, the Philippines has recorded 450,733 confirmed cases of COVID-19, with 8,757 deaths, 418,723 recoveries, and 23,253 active cases. – Rappler.com