[Q and A] Serge Osmeña says Team PNoy can’t win 12-0

MANILA, Philippines – He is a close ally of President Benigno Aquino III, but Senator Sergio Osmeña III doesn’t believe that the President can carry the whole administration ticket in the May senatorial elections. It’s just not realistic, he says; a sweep by any party has not happened in the elections he has witnessed.

But Team PNoy will dominate the senatorial race, the senator told reporters on Thursday, March 14, in a press conference at the Senate.

Osmeña was the campaign manager of the Genuine Opposition in the 2007 senatorial elections, when Aquino won as senator. He also helped Aquino in his 2010 presidential campaign. 

Osmeña is now helping Team PNoy senatorial candidates Bam Aquino, Grace Poe, and 2 United Nationalist Alliance candidates that he refused to name. 

Is Team PNoy’s senatorial target of 12-0 achievable or impossible?

OSMEÑA: Nothing is impossible. Is it achievable? Is it realistic? No. It is not realistic because there are also very strong candidates on the UNA side. The 12-0 [campaign] is a propaganda claim. I haven’t seen a 12-0 victory in my entire life, even at the height of the cheating in the 1967 elections. (Editor’s note: The Nacionalista Party of President Marcos was battling it out against the Liberal Party of the President’s father, the late Senator Benigno “Ninoy” Aquino.)

Ninoy Aquino won. He was No. 2. We were only electing 8 senators then. It was 7-1 in the final tally. The Liberal Party lost but Ninoy Aquino was No. 2. It’s really hard to achieve a 12-0 target. A 9-3 [for Team PNoy] would be fantastic.

In the 2007 senatorial elections, it would turn out that it was 10-2 in the final tally. Lakas-Kampi [of former President Arroyo] was walloped. Only Senator Joker Arroyo and Edgardo Angara made it. The rest were known or thought to be  opposition. The 2 indepedent candidates won — Sen Francis “Kiko” Pangilinan, who was a Liberal party member, and Sen Gringo Honasan, who always ran as an independent. They were perceived to be anti-Gloria.

Can Team PNoy maintain 9-3 or 8-4? 

OSMEÑA: Anything can happen. These are preference surveys. Respondents are asked: ‘If the elections are held today, how will you vote?’ It’s only as of today. Would that be an indication of the results of the elections in May? More or less I would say it’s getting there. But anything can happen. Somebody might stumble. Somebody can make a mistake. There might be issues that might come up that will affect the entire slate. For example, the Sabah issue. If it turns out badly, it might affect the entire complexion of the campaign. No one can say with any degree of confidence that 8-4 or 9-3 will be the result of the election.

What do you think of the SWS survey, where UNA candidates suffered a beating?

OSMEÑA: The SWS survey doesn’t show the UNA candidates as weak candidates. People just like to look at the surveys just based on rankings. It’s an inaccurate way of analyzing a survey. For example, I ranked No. 8 and I’m at 36%. Your ranking is No. 15 and you’re at 34%. We’re practically tied. Look closely. Those were ranked 9th to 13th. It could be any one of those. It can change overnight. One or two percent will not really make a difference. The accuracy of the survey is about plus or minus 3 percent.

Question: But will Team PNoy dominate the senatorial race? 

OSMEÑA: It looks that way. The surveys taken yesterday is not a definite indicator of what will happen in May but it gives you a trend. The last 4 surveys show a trend. It’s important to look at trends. If the coalition between the various individuals — including the independents, the Nationalista Party and the Liberal Party — holds out then definitely they will have the numbers in the next Congress. It looks like the PNoy administration will be able to garner a majority. – Carmela Fonbuena/Rappler.com