MANILA, Philippines (UPDATED) – The two front runners in the most recent presidential preference poll, in separate statements on Monday, September 21, thanked the public for their “trust” and “support” less than a month before the official filing of candidacies.

Senator Grace Poe and administration standard-bearer Manuel Roxas II topped the Social Weather Stations (SWS)’s September 2015 survey on the 2016 presidential elections. The survey, which asked respondents to name 3 people they think should succeed President Benigno Aquino III, put Poe at the lead with 47% and Roxas at 39%.

At third, but statistically tied with Roxas, is opposition United Nationalist Alliance (UNA) chairman Vice President Jejomar Binay with 35 percentage points.

“Nagpapasalamat ako sa suporta ng ating mga kababayan. Ikinagagalak po ng buong Daang Matuwid coalition ang nangyaring pag-angat sa ating mga numero sa huling survey ng SWS. Para sa akin ay patunay ito na habang tumatagal, lumilinaw sa sambayanan ang mga napakagandang nasimulan, at ng pagnanais na manatili sa Daang Matuwid,” said Roxas, who posted the highest jump compared to a previous SWS survey which employed the same methodology.

(I am very thankful for the support of our countrymen. The entire Daang Matuwid coalition is elated by the surge in our numbers in the most recent SWS survey. For me, this is proof that, as time passes, more and more Filipinos are recognizing the excellent beginnings we have made along the straight path, and are expressing their desire to maintain our trajectory.)

“Daang Matuwid” is the current administration’s tagline for its anti-corruption, transparency, and good governance platform. Roxas’ campaign is hinged on the promise of continuity of the current administration’s gains and certainty that as Aquino’s anointed, Roxas is the best candidate for the job.

That’s a claim Poe, whose 47 percentage points put her 8 percentage points ahead of Roxas, seeks to counter with her “independent” presidential run.

Poe: ‘Growing support’

Poe said in a statement released to media:

“Mula sa kaibuturan ng aking puso, nagpapasalamat po ako sa sambayanang Filipino para sa kanilang suporta at tiwala. Natutuwa po ako na patuloy na pinahahalagahan ng ating mga kababayan ang ating pagsisikap sa trabaho at ang pamamahalang ating pinaninindigan at isinusulong.”

(From the bottom of my heart, I thank the Filipino people for their support and trust. I am again humbled that our kababayans continue to appreciate our hard work and the brand of governance that we are upholding and pushing.)

“Ang lumalawak na suporta mula sa taumbayan, na masasalamin sa survey na ito, ay isang apirmasyon na nasa tamang direksyon ang ating nasimulan. Isa itong balidasyon na ang ating mga kababayan ay nakakaugnay sa ating agenda ng pagiging bukas, epektibo, at tapat.”

(Our growing support from the people, as reflected in this survey, is an affirmation that what we have started is on the right track. It’s a validation that our agenda for transparency, efficiency, and honesty resonate well with our people.)

Poe’s mother, actress Susan Roces, thanked her daughters’ supporters.

“Nagpapasalamat ako. Maraming salamat sa kinalabasan ng survey (I’m thankful. Many thanks for the results of the survey)….What more can I say at this point?” Roces said on Monday, at the press conference for her upcoming TV show, Ang Probinsyano. Ang Probinsyano, a series inspired by one of the late Fernando Poe Jr’s films. 

The survey covers Roxas’ anointment and the end of the Iglesia ni Cristo’s protests against the government’s alleged overreach into internal church affairs. It does not cover Poe’s official announcement on September 16.

While the full report has yet to be made public, political analyst Edmund Tayao told BusinessWorld, which first published the results of the SWS survey, that Roxas’ huge rise may be “immaterial.” 

“As expected, [Poe] leads the pack. Note however that the eight percent[age point] difference between her and [Roxas] is immaterial as those who chose [Poe] would most likely also choose [Roxas]. If at all, the survey suggest that [Poe] and [Roxas] have the same support base,” he said. 

Since Poe’s announcement, both Roxas and administration have been drawing the line between the two candidates, particularly as Poe seems to be positioning herself not as the opposition, but as an alternative to the administration. 

‘Only the beginning”

Roxas has done well in SWS surveys which employed the same methodologies. In December 2014, Roxas placed 3rd with 19 percentage points. In April 2015, the admin bet was tied at 3rd with Davao City Mayor Rodrigo Duterte, with 15% each. 

In polls with a different methodology, Roxas fared badly. Even as he got 15% in the April 2015 SWS “best leaders to succeed Aquino” survey, he got a measly 4% in a Pulse Asia survey, which only allowed respondents to choose one presidential bet. 

Binay, who has seen his number slip since the Senate launched a probe into allegations of corruption while he was mayor of Makati, did not seem bothered by the results of the survey. In an interview on Monday, Binay said his 35% posting only goes to prove his “core group” remains solidly behind him.

While revelling in his improved numbers, Roxas was quick to point out that the September 2015 survey results were “only the beginning.”

“Sa paglipas ng panahon, dadami ang mga isyung ihaharap sa bawat kandidato (As time passes, so too will each candidate have to face more issues) and we are confident that more and more of our people will be able to discern true election issues from mere mudslinging,” he said.

Roxas added: “Tinatanggap natin ang pagtaas sa survey na ito bilang pagtitiwala sa atin na kalingain ang mga pamilya, kinabukasan, at pangarap ng ating mga kababayan (We see our increased numbers in this survey as an expression of faith in our capability to care for our families, our collective future, and the dreams of our countrymen.)”

Roxas, who ran but lost to Binay in 2010, knows all too well the dangers of banking of survey numbers too heavily. The LP stalwart was leading in vice presidential surveys then as Binay slowly gained numbers.

Thus far, only Binay, Poe, and Roxas have declared their plans of seeking the presidency in 2016. Duterte, who has already said he would not be running for president, placed 4th in the survey with 16 percentage points. – Rappler.com