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MANILA, Philippines – Tropical Storm Perla (Neoguri) is almost stationary inside the Philippine Area of Responsibility (PAR), though latest data show it will “not cause significant high-impact weather” in extreme Northern Luzon.

In a briefing past 11 am on Friday, October 18, the Philippine Atmospheric, Geophysical, and Astronomical Services Administration (PAGASA) said Perla remains 790 kilometers east of Basco, Batanes, hardly moving.

The tropical storm continues to have maximum winds of 65 kilometers per hour (km/h) and gustiness of up to 80 km/h. But it could eventually weaken back into a tropical depression while still inside PAR.

Perla is not expected to make landfall and there are no areas under tropical cyclone wind signals. (READ: FAST FACTS: Tropical cyclones, rainfall advisories)

PAGASA said “changes in the forecast scenario” show Perla may no longer affect extreme Northern Luzon.

But the state weather bureau advised residents and disaster managers in the area to continue monitoring updates.

While Perla is not seen to affect extreme Northern Luzon, PAGASA said there may be occasional gusty conditions there until early next week due to the northeasterly surface windflow.

Also due to the northeasterly surface windflow, travel remains risky in the seaboards of Northern Luzon, especially for small vessels.

Based on Perla’s latest forecast track, it might leave PAR on Tuesday, October 22.

Perla is the Philippines’ 16th tropical cyclone for 2019, and the 1st for October. (READ: LIST: PAGASA’s names for tropical cyclones in 2019)

The country gets an average of 20 tropical cyclones annually, but since 2019 is an El Niño year, only 14 to 18 tropical cyclones are expected.

Below is the estimated number of tropical cyclones from October to December:

• October – 2 or 3
• November – 1 or 2
• December – 0 or 1

Meanwhile, the intertropical convergence zone (ITCZ) will bring scattered rainshowers and thunderstorms to these areas on Friday:

• Zamboanga Peninsula
• Western Visayas
• Palawan

PAGASA defines the ITCZ as a “series of low pressure areas brought about by converging northeast and southeast winds that cause thunderstorms and rainshowers.”

Other parts of the country, not affected by the ITCZ or the northeasterly surface windflow, will continue to have fair weather. There may just be isolated rainshowers or localized thunderstorms, mostly in the afternoon or evening.

PAGASA declared the start of the rainy season last June 14. – Rappler.com