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MANILA, Philippines – Aside from Severe Tropical Storm Perla (Neoguri) which continues to strengthen, the state weather bureau is also keeping an eye on a shallow low pressure area (SLPA) and a tropical depression which are both outside the Philippine Area of Responsibility (PAR).

In a briefing past 5 pm on Saturday, October 19, the Philippine Atmospheric, Geophysical, and Astronomical Services Administration (PAGASA) said Perla now has maximum winds of 100 kilometers per hour (km/h) from the previous 95 km/h and gustiness of up to 125 km/h from the previous 115 km/h.

PAGASA Weather Specialist Gener Quitlong said Perla could still intensify into a typhoon while inside PAR.

Perla is already 570 kilometers east northeast of Basco, Batanes, moving northwest at the same pace of 15 km/h.

The severe tropical storm is not expected to make landfall in the country and there are no areas under tropical cyclone wind signals. PAGASA said no “significant high-impact weather” is expected. (READ: FAST FACTS: Tropical cyclones, rainfall advisories)

Based on Perla’s latest forecast track, it might leave PAR between Sunday evening, October 20, and Monday morning, October 21.

Perla is the Philippines’ 16th tropical cyclone for 2019, and the 1st for October. (READ: LIST: PAGASA’s names for tropical cyclones in 2019)

The country gets an average of 20 tropical cyclones annually, but since 2019 is an El Niño year, only 14 to 18 tropical cyclones are expected.

Below is the estimated number of tropical cyclones from October to December:

• October – 2 or 3
• November – 1 or 2
• December – 0 or 1

Meanwhile, the SLPA outside PAR is now 1,835 kilometers east of Southern Luzon. It is moving west and could enter PAR on Monday or on Tuesday, October 22.

Quitlong said the SLPA is less likely to become a tropical cyclone, so far, but this possibility is not being ruled out.

It could also make landfall in Central Luzon or Southern Luzon in the coming days. But Quitlong said this forecast may still change as the SLPA remains far.

As for the tropical depression outside PAR, it is 3,235 kilometers east of Mindanao, moving west northwest at a relatively fast 30 km/h.

The tropical depression has maximum winds of 55 km/h and gustiness of up to 70 km/h. It might eventually become a typhoon in the next 2 to 3 days.

This weather disturbance might enter the northeastern portion of PAR in the coming days, but it might just stay near the boundary and not make landfall.

Quitlong emphasized, however, that the forecast may still change since the tropical depression is still very far, like the SLPA.

In the meantime, there may be occasional gusts in extreme Northern Luzon until early next week due to the northeasterly surface windflow.

The windflow may also continue to bring isolated light rain to these areas on Sunday:

• Batanes
• Ilocos Norte
• Apayao
• Cagayan

Also due to the windflow, travel remains risky in the seaboards of Northern Luzon, especially for small vessels.

The rest of the country will continue to have fair weather on Sunday, with just isolated rainshowers or localized thunderstorms.

PAGASA declared the start of the rainy season last June 14. – Rappler.com