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MANILA, Philippines (UPDATED) – The low pressure area inside the Philippine Area of Responsibility (PAR) developed into a tropical depression at 2 pm on Thursday, June 11. It was given the local name Butchoy.

In an online briefing at 5:30 pm on Thursday, the Philippine Atmospheric, Geophysical, and Astronomical Services Administration (PAGASA) said Butchoy is already 75 kilometers northwest of Daet, Camarines Norte, or 95 kilometers east of Infanta, Quezon.

The tropical depression is moving west northwest at 20 kilometers per hour (km/h).

It is forecast to cross Polillo Island and make landfall in the northern part of Quezon or in the southern part of Aurora between Thursday night and Friday morning, June 12.

At the moment, Butchoy has maximum winds of 45 km/h and gustiness of up to 55 km/h. (READ: FAST FACTS: Tropical cyclones, rainfall advisories)

Signal No. 1 is now raised in the following areas:

• Pangasinan
• Zambales
• Bataan
• Tarlac
• Pampanga
• Nueva Ecija
• Bulacan
• southern part of Aurora (Dingalan, San Luis)
• Metro Manila
• Rizal
• Laguna
• Cavite
• northern and central parts of Quezon (General Nakar, Infanta, Real, Panukulan, Burdeos, Polillo, Patnanungan, Jomalig, Mauban, Sampaloc, Lucban, San Antonio, Tiaong, Dolores, Candelaria, Sariaya, Tayabas City, Lucena City, Pagbilao, Atimonan, Padre Burgos, Agdangan, Unisan, Plaridel, Gumaca, Pitogo, Macalelon, Lopez, Guinayangan, Tagkawayan, Calauag, Quezon, Alabat, Perez)
• Camarines Norte

PAGASA said areas under Signal No. 1, the Visayas, Southern Luzon, and the western part of Mindanao may experience occasional gusts in the next 24 hours. (READ: Why is it now called tropical cyclone ‘wind’ – and not ‘warning’ – signals?)

PAGASA also provided the following rainfall outlook:

Between Thursday afternoon, June 11, and Friday morning, June 12

Moderate to heavy rain with at times intense rain

• Calabarzon
• Camarines Norte
• Camarines Sur
• Albay
• northern part of Palawan including Calamian and Cuyo Islands
• Occidental Mindoro
• Marinduque
• Romblon

Moderate to heavy rain

• Central Luzon
• Metro Manila
• Western Visayas
• Oriental Mindoro
• rest of Bicol
• rest of Palawan

Light to moderate rain with at times heavy rain

• rest of Luzon
• Visayas

Between Friday morning, June 12, and Saturday morning, June 13

Moderate to heavy rain

• Central Luzon
• Metro Manila
• Calabarzon
• northern part of Palawan including Calamian and Cuyo Islands
• Occidental Mindoro
• Oriental Mindoro
• Pangasinan

Light to moderate rain with at times heavy rain

• Western Visayas
• rest of Luzon

PAGASA advised areas in Butchoy’s path to brace for possible flash floods and landslides.

The state weather bureau also warned that moderate to rough seas, with waves 1.2 to 3.4 meters high, will be experienced in the seaboards of Luzon and the Visayas in the next 24 hours.

Those with small vessels should not set sail, while larger vessels “must take precaution against rough seas,” said PAGASA.

Based on Butchoy’s latest forecast track, it could leave PAR on Saturday, June 13.

Butchoy is the Philippines’ second tropical cyclone for 2020. The first was Typhoon Ambo (Vongfong) last May.

The country gets an average of 20 tropical cyclones per year. (READ: LIST: PAGASA’s names for tropical cyclones in 2020)

In PAGASA’s climate outlook, it gave the following estimates for the number of tropical cyclones in the next 6 months:

• June – 1 or 2
• July – 2 to 4
• August – 2 or 3
• September – 2 or 3
• October – 2 or 3
• November – 1 or 2

– Rappler.com