MANILA, Philippines (UPDATED) – The 2019 rainy season is underway.

The Philippine Atmospheric, Geophysical, and Astronomical Services Administration (PAGASA) declared the start of the rainy season on Friday, June 14.

For the onset of the rainy season to be declared, the requirement is 5 days of rain generating a total amount of at least 25 millimeters (mm) of rainfall. These 5 days must also include 3 straight days of at least 1 mm of rainfall. (READ: FAST FACTS: Tropical cyclones, rainfall advisories)

“The occurrence of scattered to at times widespread rainfall associated with the southwest monsoon during the past few days as observed by most PAGASA stations in the western section of the country confirms the onset of the rainy season over the areas under the Type I climate,” said PAGASA in an advisory on Friday.

“These rains will continue to affect the country, especially over the western sections of Luzon and Visayas. However, breaks in rainfall events – also known as monsoon break – that can last for several days or weeks may still occur,” the state weather bureau added.

PAGASA had declared the onset of the southwest monsoon or hanging habagat last Tuesday, June 11.

For July, rainfall is “expected to be generally near to above normal over most parts of Luzon and the Visayas, while generally below normal in most areas of Mindanao and Southern Visayas.”

In the coming months, the following are expected to bring rain, according to PAGASA:

• severe local thunderstorms
• southwest monsoon or hanging habagat
• easterlies or warm winds blowing from the east
• intertropical convergence zone
• low pressure areas
• tropical cyclones (READ: LIST: PAGASA’s names for tropical cyclones in 2019)

Below is the estimated number of tropical cyclones from June to November:

• June – 1 or 2
• July – 2 or 3
• August – 2 or 3
• September – 2 to 4
• October – 2 or 3
• November – 1 or 2

The estimate for December is expected to be included in PAGASA’s next climate outlook.

So far, the Philippines has had 3 tropical cyclones in 2019:

• Tropical Depression Amang – January
• Tropical Depression Betty – February
• Tropical Depression Chedeng – March

The country gets an average of 20 tropical cyclones per year. But PAGASA earlier said there may be fewer tropical cyclones in 2019 as a weak El Niño persists.

PAGASA said there is a 70% chance that El Niño will continue from June to August, and a 55% to 60% chance that it will still prevail from September to November. – Rappler.com