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MANILA, Philippines (UPDATED) – Tropical Depression Marilyn began to pull the southwest monsoon or hanging habagat on Thursday evening, September 12, according to the state weather bureau.

In a briefing at 11 pm on Thursday, the Philippine Atmospheric, Geophysical, and Astronomical Services Administration (PAGASA) said Marilyn is already 1,175 kilometers east northeast of Casiguran, Aurora, or 1,165 kilometers east of Basco, Batanes.

It slightly slowed down and is now moving northwest at 20 kilometers per hour (km/h) from the previous 25 km/h.

The tropical depression still has maximum winds of 55 km/h and gustiness of up to 70 km/h. But it could intensify into a tropical storm within 48 hours, while inside the Philippine Area of Responsibility (PAR).

There are no areas under tropical cyclone wind signals and Marilyn is unlikely to make landfall.

But PAGASA Weather Specialist Ariel Rojas reiterated in the briefing that Marilyn has a very broad circulation, which is why it is causing rain in the Philippines even though it is over the ocean.

The tropical depression is also starting to pull the southwest monsoon – another source of rain.

Below is the latest on the expected rainfall from Marilyn and the southwest monsoon combined.

Thursday evening, September 12, to Friday evening, September 13

• Moderate to intermittent heavy rain
• Aurora
• Palawan
• Western Visayas
• Zamboanga Peninsula
• Light to moderate rain and occasional heavy rainshowers
• rest of Luzon
• rest of the Visayas
• Bangsamoro
• Northern Mindanao
• Soccsksargen

Residents of those areas should be on alert for possible flash floods and landslides. (READ: FAST FACTS: Tropical cyclones, rainfall advisories)

Classes were suspended in some areas for Friday, September 13. (READ: #WalangPasok: Class suspensions, Friday, September 13, 2019)

Travel is also risky, especially for small seacraft, in the central and eastern seaboards of the Visayas and the seaboards of Mindanao.

Based on Marilyn’s latest forecast track, it will leave PAR on Sunday, September 15.

Marilyn is the Philippines’ 13th tropical cyclone for 2019, and the 3rd in September. (READ: LIST: PAGASA’s names for tropical cyclones in 2019)

The country gets an average of 20 tropical cyclones annually, but since 2019 is an El Niño year, only 14 to 18 tropical cyclones are expected.

Below is the estimated number of tropical cyclones from September to December:

• September – 2 to 4
• October – 2 or 3
• November – 1 or 2
• December – 0 or 1

PAGASA declared the start of the rainy season last June 14. – Rappler.com

Editor’s note: An earlier version of this story said Marilyn is enhancing the southwest monsoon. This has been corrected to pulling.