SUMMARY
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Singapore – Mayweather likes to play defense. He’s not as mobile as he once was when he was younger. Nowadays, the ‘Pretty Boy’ from Grand Rapids likes to sit on his heels and react to a puncher’s initiative – albeit with better efficiency than ever before.
It’s not apparent to the naked eye that Floyd Mayweather Jr., 35 years old, has lost a step or two inside the squared circle. In fact, to just about everyone watching, he’s as brilliant as ever.
It is a testament to the greatness of his craft.
Just as Michael Jordan was able to change his game from a high-flying lane slasher to a half-court scoring dynamo, Mayweather was able to adapt from being a high-octane speedster to a cerebral assassin, breaking down an opponent’s style and capitalizing on his mistakes.
His augmented style has brought him success in the higher weight divisions, but a few observers argue that if there was ever a time when Mayweather was ripe for the picking, it would be now — Miguel Cotto might just be in the perfect position to hand him his first defeat.
No room for error
To be able to accomplish what 42 others were unable to do before him however, Miguel Cotto must employ a near-perfect gameplan to finally solve the riddle that is Mayweather. Cotto’s trainer, Pedro Diaz, is not impressed with what he sees in Mayweather.
In an interview with Jhonny Gonzalez of Boxingscene.com, Diaz downplayed Mayweather’s mystique.
“Floyd is a good fighter, but you can’t win with words,” Diaz said referring to Mayweather’s consistent boastful anti-hero persona. “You win with your hands. Words do not win any boxing match. Your hands do the talking. I’m not impressed with Mayweather. He is a fighter like anyone else who has two hands.”
That being said, downplaying Mayweather’s skills in the ring is easier than actually trying to figure it out during the fight. For Cotto to even have a shot at winning, he’d have to fight a near-flawless fight. Cotto will have to conjure up the Cotto of old, consistently bully his way on the inside into unleashing punishing body attacks and at times turning the dance into a brawl.
Few have had success against Mayweather in this regard. The most noteworthy are Jose Luis Castillo who many thought won the first fight against Mayweather, and Oscar Dela Hoya who was able to cutoff the ring effectively against him and trap him in the corner at times. Dela Hoya was able to salvage a split-decision loss against ‘Money May’, placing a slight chink in the armor.
If Cotto can take what worked well for both Castillo and Dela Hoya, and use it to his strengths and advantages, we could have an interesting fight.
All which is much easier viewed on paper than it is in the actual fight. “42 have tried and 42 have failed” says the brash Mayweather, confident of yet another victory.
As the bout draws near and HBO’s 24/7 series comes to an end, we are left with a feeling that the outcome of this contest hinges on two very important underlying factors.
Is Mayweather still at his peak and able to ward off a hard-charging Cotto, even now that he is 35 years old and at the tail end of a long and storied boxing career?
Does the somewhat rejuvenated Cotto have enough to contend with a defensive genius such as Mayweather?
Keys to victory: Miguel Cotto
The match seems more competitive than it actually is. Once again, HBO has done a wonderful job of selling the hype and making the fight appear even, when in fact it’s not. Let’s take a closer look.
Miguel Cotto is up against steep odds on this one. Not only will he have to turn back the hands of time and pretend he never took a beating from Margarito or Pacquiao, but he has to live up to his reputation as a hellacious body puncher on the inside. It’s no secret that the trick to beating Mayweather is a good body attack, one that Cotto most certainly possesses – but can Cotto deliver the goods?
Mayweather is a genius at tying up fighters on the inside to prevent any damage done. Cotto must stay away from the clinch and keep at Mayweather’s gut for the entire 12 rounds, assuming this drags out into deep water.
Cotto’s only hope is to break down Mayweather gradually over the course of the fight and finish off his opponent in the later rounds.
Keys to victory: Floyd Mayweather
To add number 43 in the ‘W’ column, Mayweather just needs to stick to what he does best – and that’s pot shot and score points while frustrating opponents with dirty and borderline illegal defensive tactics like tying up and using those high elbows. Mayweather’s secret is that he frustrates his opponents first mentally before he picks them apart scientifically.
Against a naïve and lacking foe like Victor Ortiz whom he knocked out just last year, Mayweather could afford to get a bit rough and rowdy, turning up the offensive – but against Cotto, who is far more polished and patient than Ortiz, Mayweather cannot risk going into a ‘crowd pleasing’ style. He has to stick to his guns and think defense first — it’s what got him to where he is now in the first place.
With that impenetrable Philly Shell and those uncanny, cat-like reflexes, Mayweather will pile on the points and dominate rounds towards earning a solid points victory like so many other times before. Possibly, if Cotto is far more shopworn than we originally thought, Mayweather could even score a late round TKO, so don’t discount that scenario.
Prediction
This fight promises fireworks and an early stoppage. Fans will flock to Las Vegas to see someone get knocked out. They will order the Pay-Per-View and expect an instant classic.
And they have all the right to, because Miguel Cotto is a dangerous opponent who is apparently reinvigorated and reinvented. But what does Mayweather do with dangerous opponents? He takes them out of their game completely utilizing every trick in the book.
Mayweather is a boxing genius. His knowledge of the sweet science is unparalleled. His ability to read an opponent’s style and take every advantage away from them is legendary.
Look for Mayweather to feel Cotto out in the opening rounds, carefully pinpointing habitual flaws in Cotto’s style and by the 3rd round or so start exploiting those mistakes.
By the middle of the fight, Cotto will be throwing bombs that will seldom hit the target. Towards the ‘championship rounds’ Cotto will need a knockout to win, but he’ll be so far out of it that he will succumb to Mayweather’s frustrating style.
Cotto is tough enough to last the entire 12 rounds without being knocked out but not much else.
Barring any shocking turn of events, Mayweather will waltz to a 12-round Unanimous Decision in dominating fashion, winning nearly every round.
Mayweather by UD12. – Rappler.com
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