AFC Asian Cup: Thoughts on another tough Azkals draw

“What have we done to deserve this?” That must be in the minds of Azkals fans as once again, the bouncing balls of a competition draw fail to fall in our favor. 

Last Monday in Abu Dhabi the draw was held for the qualifiers of the AFC Asian Cup for 2019 and the Philippines ended up in a double-round-robin Group F against Tajikistan, Yemen and Nepal.

At first glance this is a doable set of opponents. We only need to finish as one of the top two teams in our pool to make it to the UAE in 2019. But a closer inspection shows that this could be a tricky set of foes. 

First a primer on how these teams are drawn. There are already 12 sides who have qualified for the AFC Asian Cup from the previous round of joint qualifying for this competition and the 2018 World Cup. Most of those who missed out are trying to book tickets in this phase.

Kuwait was unable to get their FIFA suspension sorted out in time and Guam pulled out. That left two slots open, and AFC handed those berths to two nations, Nepal and Macau, who failed to qualify out of the previous round robin round. Nepal and Macau finished top two in the AFC Solidarity Cup, a competition for the nations who missed out on this round, so that is why they were granted repechage slots here. Nepal lifted the first Solidarity Cup by beating Macau 1-0 in the final last month. 

The addition of Nepal and Macau once again brought the pool of nations to 24. Half will proceed and join the 12 already qualified to make a 24-team field two years hence. 

Before the draw the 24 squads were herded into 4 pots of 6 teams according to their FIFA rankings. Each group of 4 teams will take one team from each pot. 

Since the Philippines has such a good FIFA ranking compared to the other nations here, we were seeded third and in Pot 1 with the other highly-ranked nations. That means it would be impossible to be drawn in a group with the other heavyweights in that pot, namely Kyrgyzstan, DPR Korea, Jordan, Oman, and Bahrain. 

I am sometimes critical of the Philippines’ breathless chase of FIFA rankings points, but this is where it should have paid off. All of those good results in friendlies put us in an advantageous position pre-draw. It prevented us from being thrown into a shark tank of a group. In theory, we would be the Great White in our bunch. But that’s not quite how it turned out. 

So we are given one opponent each from the other 3 pots. Pot 2 featured India, Hong Kong, Vietnam, Palestine, Turkmenistan and Tajikistan. Before the draw I looked at this pot and thought that if we avoided either of the ‘-stans’ or Palestine, we would be in good shape. India doesn’t quite have the pedigree of the other 3, and we have beaten Vietnam and Hong Kong in recent memory. But alas, Tajikistan fell into our lap. Ranked 132^nd in the world, they disposed of another tough Central Asian side, Turkmenistan, 3-0 last November. We last tangled with the Tajiks in the AFC Challenge Cup in 2012, beating them 2-1 in Nepal. 

So on to Pot 3, which offered up Myanmar, Lebanon, Afghanistan, Maldives, Chinese Taipei, and Yemen. I think that our best side should be able to handle Myanmar. Chinese Taipei did beat us in the Peace Cup in Bacolod but I like our chances against them. We were able to edge Maldives on their pitch in the Challenge Cup in 2014 in extra time. Lebanon would have been tough and Afghanistan only lost to Tajikistan 1-0 last year. But instead we were handed Yemen, the same country that beat us 1-0 two Decembers ago in Rizal Memorial in the last round. 

Yemen may be from a war-torn country, but they know their football. Since their national team then was living and training in Qatar they had plenty of time together and looked very cohesive in that upset win. 

Okay, so how about Pot 4? Surely there could have been a cream puff for us there? Pot 4 was comprised of fellow ASEAN sides Singapore, Malaysia, Cambodia, Nepal, Bhutan and Macau. I like our chances against the 3 Southeast Asian teams. Bhutan, at 176 in the world, should represent 6 points in two games. Macau are even further adrift at 184, a notch below Malta and just ahead of the Seychelles. 

But alas we drew Nepal. The team that just won the Solidarity Cup and have a spring in their step. Yes, we did beat them handily twice in two friendlies in 2014, but both were held in Doha, Qatar, a neutral venue at sea level. Yes, we are overwhelming favorites when they come to meet us on March 28, but that away trip at Kathmandu in November literally and figuratively sends chills up my spine. 

A Pot 1 team surely can expect to win both legs against a Pot 4 side. But Kathmandu rests 1400 meters above sea level. That’s actually a bit lower than Baguio, but still significant, considering the temperature and the travel, which is an issue in all our away legs for this campaign.

All 3 of our away group matches involve exhausting treks. You could almost hear the groans from the players once the group was announced. 

Yemen will likely play their home match in Qatar like they did in 2015, but that’s still an 8-hour flight. The Tajikistan road game on June 13 will be a pain to get to. The cheapest flights take you from Manila to Guangzhou, then Guangzhou to the Western Chinese city of Urumqi, then to Dushanbe, the Tajik capital. The layovers are likely to be long. A more direct route has only one stopover in Turkey but will cost double of that previous itinerary.

The flight to Kathmandu is no picnic either, although there is only one stop, either Bangkok or Hong Kong. 

The way I see it there was no harder Pot 4 away game than Nepal, and that is exactly what we landed. The altitude and the travel make this game a true banana skin. Almost every other Pot 4 away game would have been a short hop away at sea level against a beatable team. True, an away match at Bhutan would have also meant difficult travel and a match at high altitude, but the Bhutanese are probably weaker than Nepal.

We must cast an envious eye at the other Pot 1 teams and their draws. North Koreans are high-fiving themselves after drawing Hong Kong, Lebanon and a rebuilding Malaysia. Kyrgyzstan are sitting pretty with a potential nuisance in India but a middling Myanmar and a minnow in Macau. In Group E Bahrain might be given some fits by Turkmenistan but are likely to lord it over Singapore and Chinese Taipei.

Of course there is silver lining. Tajikistan, Yemen and Nepal will have an equally hard time playing us at home as we will have playing them on the road. They have to travel too. So we should gather anywhere from 7 to 9 points in our home games. If we nick a draw or two or even a win in our road matches, then we likely secure passage to the final round. 

The Philippines suffered through a tough draw in World Cup qualifying. Got the group of death in the Suzuki Cup, (two of our group mates contested the final,) and now have yet another tough path to the big dance in 2019. But the milk has been spilled and there is no use shedding any tears for it. It’s time for the team to roll up its sleeves and get to work. 

“The travel arrangements will be tricky but the draw is not too bad I think.” says Azkals team manager Dan Palami. “We would have wanted an easier path, but this all boils down to preparations.” – Rappler.com 

Follow Bob on Twitter @PassionateFanPH.