McGregor vs Diaz: Does size really matter?

 

 

MANILA, Philippines – Conor McGregor has proven on several occasions that he can support the smack that his mouth spews, but he is entering unfamiliar territory against Nate Diaz in the main event of UFC 196 on Sunday, March 6 (March in US).

For the first time in his 21-fight career, the UFC featherweight titleholder will be strutting his wares in the welterweight division, which has a weight limit of 170 pounds.

Moving up to another weight class is not to McGregor as he has done it before under the Cage Warriors Fighting Championship (CWFC) banner.

McGregor thwarted Norwegian replacement Aron Jahnsen in a 155-pound contest in September 2011, while he captured the CWFC lightweight belt by knocking out Slovakia’s Ivan Buchinger in December 2012.

When it was announced that Diaz would take Rafael dos Anjos’ place at UFC 196, numerous cageside observers raised their eyebrows on the weight class, where both men will compete.

(READ: Nate Diaz holds two advantages over Conor McGregor at UFC 196)

Known to be a regular fixture at featherweight, the 27-year-old Irishman has not fought as high as the welterweight bracket in his 8-year prizefighting run. 

It now brings up the question if size really matters in this kind of marquee mixed martial arts showdown, which takes place at the MGM Grand Garden Arena in Las Vegas, Nevada. 

McGregor has never danced with an opposition as tall as Diaz, who sports a 6-foot frame and has a reach of 76 inches.

In the past, the 5-foot-8 Irish easily had his raised in triumph against much taller opponents than him, including Artur Sowinski, Buchinger, Max Holloway and Dustin Poirier.

The closest to Diaz’s height was the 5-foot-11 Holloway, whom McGregor outpointed in August 2013 by mixing precise punches with a dazzling array of kicks.

But with Diaz’s in-your-face attack, will McGregor get the job done versus the 30-year-old native of Stockton, California?

Diaz is familiar with the welterweight division, where he had 4 matches, winning his first two outings against Rory Markham and Marcus Davis in 2010 before yielding to top contenders such as Dong Hyun Kim and Rory MacDonald in 2011.

Diaz heavily relies on his range with his boxing, piercing a stiff right jab and then clouting his straight left as the core of his attack. 

The No. 5-ranked lightweight is comfortable maintaining distance with his left hand and pulls his head back to evade right hooks.

Aside from his advantage in size and weight, Diaz likewise holds a black belt in Brazilian Jiu-Jitsu under the tutelage of Cesar Gracie.

Diaz has won 11 of his last 18 victories by submission and was able to compel several notable names to tap, including Manny Gamburyan, Kurt Pellegrino, Melvin Guillard and Takanori Gomi.

High-level grapplers are McGregor’s kryptonite, as evidenced by the difficulties he’s had against them.

In January 2008, Joseph Duffy effortlessly forced McGregor to wave the white flag with a 38-second arm-triangle choke after the 5-foot-10 combatant swiftly took down his compatriot and positioned into side control for the fight-ending move.

Diaz’s mat skills are as good as his stand-up arsenal, pestering his opponents with persuasive triangle-armbar-omoplata-sweep chains and an assortment of submission setups.

Diaz is also an imposing fighter in close-quartered exchanges as he can incorporate underhand tosses and trips while clipping thunderous knees to the body.

McGregor had a rough time when he squared off with Chad Mendes for the interim UFC featherweight strap in July 2015.

The 5-foot-6 Mendes opened a cut near McGregor’s right eye with a slashing elbow and piled on the punishment with ground-and-pound from inside guard in the first round.

After spending most of the second period defending himself from his back, McGregor found a way to return to his feet and then launched several straight left hands and a kick to the body to get the stoppage.

Taking all factors together in this particular fight at UFC 196, size does matter in favor of Diaz, who is the 3-to-1 underdog according to betting odds. 

Diaz can strike, too

With Diaz posing a threat to McGregor’s Octagon glory, “The Notorious” must fall back on his signature speed and intricate footwork if he is bent on walking away victorious. 

Also a southpaw like Diaz, McGregor’s solid left straight is the centerpiece of his approach and calculated to allow him to land it flush on his counterpart’s chin.

It is the same fist that enshrined him as the undisputed UFC featherweight champion by knocking out Jose Aldo in just 14 seconds last December.

McGregor’s foot strikes commonly help him set up his left hand as the front kicks to the body draw his opponents’ hands away from their head, while the left round kick catches his foes when they try to evade his straight left.

Meanwhile, his nifty footwork always creates openings to put the pressure on his opponent towards the fence and clobber counter shots. 

A flat-footed Diaz could be a steady target for McGregor’s pesky pace as he can straightforwardly negate the American’s length and height leverage. 

It is expected that McGregor will get hit by Diaz’s boxing wheelhouse as he is not a defense specialist. 

One of the revelations from his meeting with Mendes was that McGregor ate a considerable number of shots, with the American wrestler finding a home for 65% of his significant strikes that mostly landed on the Irish’s head. 

However, McGregor’s iron chin holds up even when receiving the best punch from arguably the heaviest hitter in the featherweight division. 

Many believe that Diaz will capitalize on McGregor’s poor takedown defense as his stance makes him susceptible to being slumped to the floor.

This was evident when Mendes completed 75% of his takedowns with relative ease in round one against McGregor. 

McGregor sees daylight in this department as Diaz has a different method as compared to Mendes’ wrestling. 

Diaz typically executes tosses and throws to bring his opponents down to the canvas and rarely scores single or double-leg takedowns.

If range is the only determining factor, Diaz can very well land whatever he throws. But it will be a different story altogether if McGregor steps on the gas pedal. 

Who do you think will be the last man standing in a very interesting and unpredictable match-up? Leave your comments on the section below. – Rappler.com