Rules matter.
That has been the consistent message of defense ministers here at the Shangri-La Dialogue, Asia’s premier security summit, taking place under the shadow of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine.
It’s clear from the speeches delivered so far that the conflict in Europe is stirring worries in Asia-Pacific, including Southeast Asia, where there have already been rampant flouting of international rules by one major power: China.
Japan Prime Minister Fumio Kishida expressed these anxieties best in his keynote speech on Friday, June 10: “I myself have a strong sense of urgency that Ukraine today may be East Asia tomorrow.”
The next day, defense ministers of the United States, France, and Japan spoke up against “unilateral changes to the status quo,” how countries should stand up for an international rules-based order, and stop bigger states from bullying or coercing smaller nations.
US Defense Secretary Lloyd Austin said the invasion of Ukraine is a “preview of possible world chaos and turmoil” and that countries should “use this moment to come together in common purpose.”
Japan’s defense chief Nobuo Kishi, without naming China, said “collaborating with a country that does not follow rules can never be beneficial” and that doing so only “damages ones interests.”
One by one, they promised the Indo-Pacific region more support, a clear effort to entice the region away from China’s influence. It was also an assurance to Asia-Pacific countries that the Ukraine-Russia war has not distracted major powers from countering China’s aggression in the region.
Austin described the Indo-Pacific region as America’s “center of strategic gravity” and the “heart of American grand strategy.”
The region has 300,000 American military personnel and is set to get “one of the largest investments in history” in the US’ 2023 national budget. There will be, he said, $6.1 billion for the “Pacific Deterrence Initiative” which includes sharing of information by multiple countries on what goes on in the seas, and training of personnel for maritime security.
He promised bigger budgets for research and development, sharing of emerging technology with its allies, and listed down the ways the US has stepped up international defense cooperation, including the largest Balikatan military exercises with the Philippines last April that involved 9,000 troops.
France’s new Minister of the Armed Forces Sébastien Lecornu allayed fears that the Ukraine invasion means the European Union will fall short on its commitments to the Indo-Pacific.
“This will not be the case. Ukraine [invasion] does not make us blindsided,” he said during a plenary session at the Shangri-La Dialogue.
