Indonesian elections: And then there were two

JAKARTA, Indonesia – Indonesia’s complex presidential race took a step toward seeming clarity this week when Golkar Party chairman Aburizal Bakrie, the party’s declared presidential nominee, apparently abandoned the race and gave his backing to Jakarta Governor Joko “Jokowi” Widodo’s bid under the opposition Indonesian Democratic Party of Struggle (PDI-P). 

Bakrie, a coal tycoon sullied by his company’s involvement in a mud flow disaster in East Java in 2006, has struggled for years to rise above single digits in the polls. On Monday, May 12, 2014, he seemed to have given up, announcing an alliance with PDI-P, which could save him the embarrassment of defeat and leave Golkar in a powerful ruling coalition. 

Not so fast. While PDI-P announced partnerships with two smaller parties on Wednesday, Golkar’s name was not yet there. Golkar says a formal decision will be made at an internal party meeting on Saturday. The last-minute horse-trading is par for the course as the contenders for president race to beat a May 20 deadline to register coalitions and tickets for the July 9 presidential election. 

Bakrie held a meeting with PDI-P chair Megawati Sukarnoputri Thursday, May 15, 2014, afternoon and it still appeared that a deal was in the offing. A Golkar-PDI-P pairing, which had been rumored as one possibility among many after political parties started jockeying for position following April’s legislative elections, would mean the race for president would likely involve just two candidates – Joko of the PDI-P against retired Gen. Prabowo Subianto and his Gerindra Party. 

Markets in Jakarta reacted favorably to the news of a possible Golkar-PDI-P deal, which would bolster Joko’s chances and spare the country a possible run-off election in September. 

Ultimately, the battle is between Joko and Prabowo, regardless of how coalition partners shakeout. The two present a stark contrast. Jokowi, a small-town, two-term mayor, has risen to dizzying heights since his election as Jakarta governor in 2012; his practical political vision and reputation for honesty has resonated widely with voters, according to most polls. 

Prabowo, a Suharto-era strongman with a checkered human rights record, is an aristocratic Javanese insider whose grandfather was an independence leader who groomed him from a young age to someday lead the nation. His appeal lies in a nationalist message and dire warnings that the nation needs salvation in the form of a strong leader.

Bitter rivals

One-time political allies, Prabowo and Joko are now bitter rivals. In 2009, Prabowo lost a bid for vice president on the PDI-P ticket under Megawati. He claims Megawati promised at that time to support his run for president in 2014, but has now betrayed him in favor of Joko. Prabowo supported Joko in the race for Jakarta governor in 2012 and he now says the governor has also betrayed him. 

Known for a fiery, even irrational temper, Prabowo has reacted to the Joko phenomenon with vitriolic campaign ads calling Joko a puppet of Megawati and challenging his competency and nationalist credentials. The ads appear to have had some impact, with Joko’s support in several polls falling from a high of around 40 per cent “electability” to around 35 per cent, with Prabowo rising to about 20 per cent. Still, it remains a substantial lead for Joko.

Many observers look for the attacks to get worse in a two-way race. “We may see a really nasty campaign,” said Philips Vermonte of Jakarta’s Center for Strategic and International Studies. “If there are only these two, all these primordial sentiments will come out in the form of religion and nationalism.”

The two campaigns are also in stark contrast. Prabowo runs a centralized and streamlined machine, with clear messaging emanating from one source, sometimes to the chagrin of aides who would like the general to avoid going overly negative.  

PDI-P insiders say the party is still in disarray, with key campaign positions yet to be filled. Legions of Joko supporters, however, have taken up the mantle, responding to attacks on social media and allowing their man to stay above the fray so far. 

Both sides should be well funded. Conglomerates and businesses have been heavily drawn to Joko, while Prabowo’s war chest comes from a sizeable business empire run by his brother. 

If Golkar supports PDI-P it turns the arithmetic heavily in favour of Joko. Together with other smaller parties, the coalition would control nearly 50 per cent of the seats in the House of Representatives (DPR) to go with Golkar’s formidable organisational strength dating from its time as former President Suharto’s ruling party. 

The deal could also hinge on who Joko chooses as a running mate. His presumptive choice, Jusuf Kalla, a Golkar politician who was President Susilo Bambang Yudhoyono’s vice president during his first term from 2004-2009, is a longstanding Bakrie rival and critic. 

In order to put a candidate on the ballot, a party or coalition of parties must win 20% of the seats or 25% of the popular vote during legislative elections. PDI-P finished first, but failed to cross the threshold, thus preventing Joko from going it alone; Golkar finished second. 

By being forced into coalition dickering, Joko’s reform credentials also will be put to the test. If he is perceived to be making unsavory traditional political deals for cabinet seats in a new government, his idealistic supporters could sour on him. 

He has said he won’t trade support for political favors – indeed, he has a reputation for not dispensing goodies to supporters – but to be elected president requires a far more complex network of allies and patrons than winning in Jakarta. The parties seeking to align with Joko are certain to be seeking some kind of political treasure in return. 

Also this week, Prabowo moved close to naming Coordinating Minister for Economic Affairs Hatta Rajasa as his running mate. Hatta, chairman of the small National Mandate Party and an in-law of Yudhoyono, resigned his cabinet seat Tuesday to take up the No. 2 slot under Gerindra. 

Yudhoyono gave Hatta his blessing, a sign that his Democratic Party may give up on trying to field a candidate in July and could instead back Prabowo. 

The President’s fall

It is a measure of how far Yudhoyono and his Democrats have fallen that the president, who was reelected in 2009 with 60% of the vote, is largely a non-factor in 2014. The steady flow of scandals battering the Democrats in the last two years has claimed a cabinet minister and the party’s chairman, among many others, and come perilously close to the president’s youngest son, a party official who has been implicated by some of those accused in a massive bid-rigging mess involving the building of a sports complex. 

From receiving over 20% of the DPR vote in 2009, the Democrats were considered lucky to get under half that this time. The party was rejected by PDI-P for its coalition because of bad blood between Megawati and Yudhoyono that dates back to her presidency that ended in 2004. Yudhoyono left her cabinet to run for her job, a perceived betrayal she has never forgiven.

It is also widely believed that Yudhoyono has been seeking a measure of protection from possible corruption allegations for himself and his family by joining a coalition with a chance for the presidency. His party has no strong candidate of its own, and a strained alliance with Prabowo – a longstanding Yudhoyono rival and critic – may be the best offer on the table. It remains possible that the Democrats could team up with Golkar, but that coalition would likely not stand a chance against either Joko or Prabowo. 

Another factor pushing Bakrie into Joko’s camp is a widespread defacto movement to stop the mercurial Prabowo from becoming president. Prabowo is seen by his enemies as dangerously unstable and ruthlessly ambitious. 

He was implicated – but never formally tried for any crimes  in various shadowy plots at the end of the Suharto period to foment widespread unrest and attempt to seize the government, charges he has denied. Quietly behind the scenes, a multi-party coalition of players has sought to keep Prabowo from the presidency, and many of those figures are inside Golkar or already aligned with Joko. – Rappler.com

This article first appeared in The Edge Review