Economic indicators point to faster GDP growth in Q2

Rappler.com
Of 11 indicators, 7 contribute positively to economic growth. These are visitor arrivals, new businesses, stock prices, money supply and hotel occupancy, among others

MANILA, Philippines – The Philippines will likely see faster economic growth this second quarter, data from the National Statistical Coordination Board (NSCB) showed.

The NSCB reported Thursday, June 21, that the composite leading economic indicator (LEI) for the second quarter rose to 0.125 from the first quarter’s revised 0.064.

The LEI system is a study of the behavior of the major components of the country’s gross domestic product (GDP) to determine if it is expanding or contracting. The system uses, however, forecast data for some indicators that are not yet available at the time of the LEI computation.

Of the 11 indicators that make up the LEI, 7 contributed positively. These were visitor arrivals, number of new businesses, stock price index, money supply, wholesale price index, hotel occupancy rate and terms of trade index. These indicators accounted for 78.9% of the LEI, down from 82.1% in the first quarter.

On the other hand, the negative contributors to the economy, representing 21.2% of the index, were consumer price index, foreign exchange rate, total merchandise imports, and electric energy consumption.  

The LEI is consistent with the recent forecast of economists from the University of Asia and the Pacific.

UA&P’s Victor Abola, Rolando Dy and Bernardo Villegas said GDP growth is expected to accelerate to 7% in the second quarter from 6.4% in the first on the back of higher infrastructure spending, recovery in agriculture and strong consumption.

They also said that full-year growth may hit 6% to 7%, above the government’s goal of 5% to 6%.

In the first quarter, growth was driven by the robust services sector, which, in turn, was buoyed largely by tourist arrivals. – Rappler.com

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