MANILA, Philippines – In its prediction on the “rise and fall of world economies,” HSBC Global Research said the Philippines could become the world’s 16th largest economy by 2050, according a global reports on Thursday, Jan. 12, 2012.
Helped by demographics and rising education standards, the Philippines is set to leapfrog 27 places, according reports on the HSBC prediction.
The Philippines will then find itself in a better position than currently advanced economies in Europe – such as Denmark (56th by 2050), Norway (48th), Sweden (38th), and Finland (57th) – which the think-tank considers “the big (losers) in the next 40 years.”
China will likely become the world’s biggest economy in 2050 while the United States will trail it, HSBC reportedly said.
HSBC based its projections, however, on certain assumptions, including fundamentals such as current income per capita, rule of law, democracy, education levels and demographic change.
HSBC projects the Philippines economy is poised to grow by an average of 7% annually over the next 40 years, while Peru is forecasted to grow at 5.5% over the same period.
“We openly admit that behind these projections we assume governments build on their recent progress and remain solely focused on increasing the living standards for their populations,” CNN quoted the think-tank as saying. “Of course, this (may be) and overly glossy way of viewing the world.”
It also said several factors could derail economies from moving forward. These include “war, energy consumption constraints, climate change, and growing barriers to population movement across borders.”
The Philippines has reported growth rates of over 7% in 2010, but the pace will likely slow down in 2011, when the first 9 months posted growth of just 3.6%, largely due to government underspending and delayed infrastructure projects. – Rappler.com