Equities gain as investors look for cooler US inflation, Fed ‘pause’

Global stocks gained ground, hitting their highest level in more than a year on Monday, June 12, while US Treasury yields and the dollar were virtually unchanged ahead of key US inflation readings and interest rate decisions later this week from the US Federal Reserve and other central banks.

The dollar made little progress as investors opted for riskier assets, with the Fed widely expected on Wednesday, June 14, not to hike rates for the first time since January 2022.

However, oil fell around 4% with Brent crude futures closing at their lowest level since December 2021 on concerns about weak demand and rising global supplies, with rate uncertainty and inflation data added to worries.

Investors will be closely monitoring US consumer price index (CPI) data, due to be released on Tuesday, June 13, and producer price index (PPI) data, due out Wednesday, for a reading of how well the Fed’s tightening cycle has managed to curb high inflation.

The benchmark S&P 500 closed at its highest level since April 2022 after last week rising 20% from its October 12 finishing low, heralding the start of a new bull market, as defined by some market participants.

The equity index’s gains partly reflected expectations for a Fed tightening pause and for CPI and PPI to come in lower than the prior month, money managers and strategists said.

“Investors have been looking forward to a Fed pause in the rate hiking cycle since they started over a year ago. They’re trying to get out ahead of that,” said Burns McKinney, portfolio manager, NFJ Investment Group in Dallas.

In particular, McKinney saw out-performance on Monday of rate sensitive growth sectors such as technology, amid bets that a low inflation reading would give the Fed the go-ahead to stop hiking rates, at least at this week’s meeting.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average rose 189.55 points, or 0.56%, to 34,066.33, while the S&P 500 gained 40.07 points, or 0.93%, to 4,338.93.

The technology-heavy Nasdaq Composite added 202.78 points, or 1.53%, to 13,461.92 in its biggest one-day percentage gain since May 26.

MSCI’s gauge of stocks across the globe gained 0.66%, hitting its highest level since April 2022 in its third straight day of gains.

Traders are pricing in a roughly 75% chance of the Fed keeping rates steady, and a 25% chance of a 25-basis-point (bps) rate hike, according to the CME FedWatch tool.

While the Fed is expected to keep rates steady, surprise rate hikes by the Reserve Bank of Australia and the Bank of Canada last week have still kept investors alert to the idea of prolonged tightening cycles.

The European Central Bank will deliver its rate decision on Thursday, June 15, with analysts expecting it to raise rates by 25 bps and to signal that there is more ground to cover. But the Bank of Japan, which will announce its plan on Friday, June 16, is expected to maintain its ultra-loose policy.

In currencies, the dollar index, which measures the greenback against a basket of major currencies, rose 0.087%, with the euro up 0.08% to $1.0756.

The Japanese yen weakened 0.15% versus the greenback at 139.57 per dollar, while sterling was last trading at $1.2509, down 0.48% on the day.

“Though it’s more likely than not that the Fed will ‘skip’ a hike this month, it seems as if no one wants to be caught on the wrong side of the market should they choose to hike this month, keeping volatility low across most majors,” said Helen Given, FX trader, at Monex USA in Washington.

Given said a Fed hike “would likely be very dollar-positive as it would go against current market expectations.”

In US Treasuries, benchmark 10-year notes were down 0.7 basis point to 3.738%, from 3.745% late on Friday, June 9. The 30-year bond was last down 0.8 basis point to yield 3.8786% while the 2-year note was last down 2.3 basis points to yield 4.5813%.

As traders waited for central bank decisions and worried about weak Chinese demand and rising Russian supply, US crude settled down 4.35% at $67.12 per barrel and Brent settled at $71.84, down 3.94% on the day. – Rappler.com