Climate: Summit rhetoric faces credibility test

PARIS, France – A month after world leaders pledged to curb the threat of climate change, their words will be put to the test when talks for a new global pact resume in Bonn this week.

Negotiators will gather from Monday, October 20, tasked with ironing out differences over how to save Earth from potentially catastrophic climate damage.

The 6-day meeting must lay the groundwork for the annual round of ministerial-level UN talks in Lima in December.

In turn, the Lima forum has to pave the way to a historic pact in Paris in December 2015, uniting 195 nations, rich and poor.

“There’s so much that needs to be done… if we’re to remain on track for an ambitious agreement in Paris which meets the needs of those countries most vulnerable to climate change,” Ronny Jumeau, spokesman for the Alliance of Small Island States (AOSIS) told Agence France-Presse.

A special summit in New York on September 23, called by UN chief Ban Ki-moon, marked the biggest top-level climate gathering since Copenhagen in 2009.

Heads of state and government queued to renew vows to seal the 2015 deal as demonstrators rallied outside.

Taking effect from 2020, the accord would seek to limit global warming to two degrees Celsius (3.6 degrees Fahrenheit) over pre-industrial levels and channel hundreds of billions of dollars in aid to poor states.

The UN’s Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) says that on current trends, the planet could be up to 4.8ºC warmer by 2100 and sea levels up to 82 centimeters (32 inches) higher.

Conflict, hunger, floods and homelessness would be the likely result, and risks of conflict amplify as nations joust over resources.

Another scientific team, the Global Carbon Project, reported in September that carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions from fossil fuels and cement production grew by 2.3% in 2013 to a record 36 billion tons. It predicted a 2.5% rise for 2014.

Yet nations have squabbled for more than two decades over how to share emissions curbs, which requires a costly shift away from fossil fuels to cleaner energy use.

The New York meeting has revived political interest in this long process.

Mountain of challenges

But, say analysts, many technicalities – some of them nightmarishly complex – remain.

What will be the pact’s status under international law? How will it be binding? Will there be sanctions for countries who fail to meet their targets? And who will monitor compliance and measure if the global effort is falling short?

The talks in Germany will be the first chance to discuss a rough 22-page outline drawn up by working group leaders and distributed for scrutiny in July.

“In Bonn, we will start understanding where everybody stands, what are the potential obstacles, and what are the points people agree on,” said Seyni Nafo, an African bloc spokesman.

The meeting must also start narrowing down what data countries must provide when they submit emissions pledges, including whether they should include financing commitments. The goal is to have these pledges on the table by the end of 2015’s first quarter.

“Countries are working on their contributions right now and they need to know what information has to be contained in what they put forward,” said Alden Meyer of the US-based Union of Concerned Scientists (UCS).

But the topic will likely see negotiators return to a sore point – whether rich countries should have tougher targets because of their longer history of burning fossil fuels.

Developed nations reject the notion and point the finger in turn at fast-growing emerging giants, especially China, the world’s No. 1 carbon emitter. It accounted for 28 percent of fossil-fuel CO2 emissions in 2013 respectively, and India for another seven percent.

According to the Global Carbon Project, in 1990, 62% of global CO2 emissions came from rich countries and 34% in developing countries; in 2013, 58% of emissions came from developing economies, and 36% rich ones.

And then there is the question of climate aid, a key test of good faith for developing countries. Rich nations promised in 2009 to help channel up to $100 billion (78 billion euros) per year by 2020.

“It looks like international momentum to deliver is finally building,” said Jumeau, adding: “We call on the world to ensure the opportunity is not lost in Lima and the road to Paris.” – Rappler.com