Tropical Depression Falcon, enhanced monsoon to bring rain

Acor Arceo
Tropical Depression Falcon, enhanced monsoon to bring rain
It will be rainy in parts of Luzon, the Visayas, and Mindanao from Monday to Wednesday, July 15 to 17, due to Tropical Depression Falcon and the enhanced southwest monsoon

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MANILA, Philippines – The state weather bureau warned of rain from Tropical Depression Falcon, which slightly accelerated on Monday morning, July 15, and also rain from the enhanced southwest monsoon or hanging habagat.

In a press briefing past 11 am on Monday, the Philippine Atmospheric, Geophysical, and Astronomical Services Administration (PAGASA) said Falcon is already 940 kilometers east northeast of Virac, Catanduanes, or 1,150 kilometers east of Casiguran, Aurora.

The tropical depression is moving north northwest at a slightly faster 25 kilometers per hour (km/h) from the previous 20 km/h.

It still has maximum winds of 45 km/h and gustiness of up to 60 km/h. (READ: FAST FACTS: Tropical cyclones, rainfall advisories)

Falcon remains far from land, so there are no areas under tropical cyclone wind signals yet. But Signal No. 1 could be raised in parts of Northern Luzon as early as Tuesday morning, July 16. This would give residents there lead time of 36 hours to prepare for the approaching tropical depression.

“So ‘pag may Signal No. 1 po tayo, ‘yung mga nagbabalak bumiyahe…i-plano ‘nyo na po ‘yung activity ‘nyo bukas (So if we’ll have Signal No. 1, those thinking of traveling…plan your activities for tomorrow),” said PAGASA Weather Division chief Esperanza Cayanan in the press briefing on Monday.

PAGASA warned that Falcon may intensify into a tropical storm before approaching or making landfall over Extreme Northern Luzon on Wednesday afternoon or evening, July 17.

The tropical depression is also enhancing the southwest monsoonwhich is expected to bring rain as well.

Here’s what to expect in terms of rainfall:

Monday, July 15

  • Scattered to widespread rainshowers and thunderstorms due to Falcon’s trough or extension
    • Bicol
    • Eastern Visayas
  • Scattered to widespread rainshowers and thunderstorms due to the enhanced southwest monsoon
    • Mimaropa
    • Zamboanga Peninsula
    • Bangsamoro Autonomous Region in Muslim Mindanao
    • rest of the Visayas

Tuesday, July 16

  • Light to heavy monsoon rain
    • Mimaropa
    • Western Visayas
    • Zamboanga Peninsula
    • Bangsamoro Autonomous Region in Muslim Mindanao

Wednesday, July 17

  • Moderate to heavy rain due to Falcon and the enhanced southwest monsoon combined
    • Ilocos Region
    • Cordillera Administrative Region
    • Cagayan Valley
    • Zambales
    • Bataan
    • Occidental Mindoro
    • Oriental Mindoro
  • Light to heavy rain due to Falcon and the enhanced southwest monsoon combined
    • Metro Manila
    • Calabarzon
    • rest of Central Luzon
    • rest of Mimaropa
    • Western Visayas

Those in areas affected by Falcon and the enhanced southwest monsoon should watch out for possible flash floods and landslides.

“‘Yung mga kababayan po natin na naninirahan sa mabababang lugar at ‘yung mga areas na identified na mataas ang risk sa flooding at landslide, lalong-lalo na po dito sa Northern at Central Luzon at ilang bahagi ng Southern Luzon, take precautionary measures,” said PAGASA Senior Weather Specialist Chris Perez.

(To our fellow Filipinos who live in low-lying areas and in areas identified to be at risk of flooding and landslides, especially in Northern and Central Luzon and parts of Southern Luzon, take precautionary measures.)

PAGASA also advised fishermen and those with small seacraft not to venture out into the eastern seaboard of Mindanao.

Falcon is expected to leave PAR on Thursday, July 18.

Forecast track of Tropical Depression Falcon as of July 15, 2019, 11 am. Image from PAGASA

Falcon is the Philippines’ 6th tropical cyclone for 2019. The first 5 were all tropical depressions as well. (READ: LIST: PAGASA’s names for tropical cyclones in 2019)

The Philippines gets an average of 20 tropical cyclones annually, but since 2019 is an El Niño year, only 14 to 18 tropical cyclones are expected.

Below is the estimated number of tropical cyclones from July to December:

  • July – 2 or 3
  • August – 2 to 4
  • September – 2 to 4
  • October – 2 or 3
  • November – 1 or 2
  • December – 0 or 1

PAGASA declared the start of the rainy season last June 14. –

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Acor Arceo

Acor Arceo is the head of copy and editorial standards at Rappler. Trained in both online and TV newsrooms, Acor ensures consistency in editorial standards across all sections and also supervises Rappler’s coverage of disasters.