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MANILA, Philippines – The trough or extension of Tropical Depression Liwayway and the southwest monsoon or hanging habagat are expected to bring rain.

In a briefing at 5 pm on Sunday, the Philippine Atmospheric, Geophysical, and Astronomical Services Administration (PAGASA) said Liwayway is now 460 kilometers east northeast of Maasin City, Southern Leyte, or 350 kilometers east of Guiuan, Eastern Samar.

The tropical depression continues to move northwest at 20 kilometers per hour (km/h).

It still has maximum winds of 45 km/h, while its gustiness slightly increased from 55 km/h to 60 km/h. It is expected to intensify into a tropical storm while inside the Philippine Area of Responsibility (PAR).

There are no tropical cyclone wind signals due to Liwayway, and it is unlikely to make landfall.

But Liwayway’s trough will bring scattered rainshowers and thunderstorms to the following areas:

• Bicol
• Central Visayas
• Eastern Visayas
• Caraga

Flash floods and landslides are possible since the rain could be occasionally heavy. (READ: FAST FACTS: Tropical cyclones, rainfall advisories)

Based on Liwayway’s latest forecast track, it will leave PAR on Thursday, September 5.

The southwest monsoon, meanwhile, will trigger scattered rainshowers and thunderstorms in these areas:

• Pangasinan
• Zambales
• Bataan
• Occidental Mindoro
• Palawan

The rest of the country, not affected by either Liwayway’s trough or the southwest monsoon, will only have isolated rainshowers or localized thunderstorms.

Liwayway is the Philippines’ 12th tropical cyclone for 2019, and the 2nd for September. (READ: LIST: PAGASA’s names for tropical cyclones in 2019)

The country gets an average of 20 tropical cyclones annually, but since 2019 is an El Niño year, only 14 to 18 tropical cyclones are expected.

Below is the estimated number of tropical cyclones from September to December:

• September – 2 to 4
• October – 2 or 3
• November – 1 or 2
• December – 0 or 1

PAGASA declared the start of the rainy season last June 14. – Rappler.com