Tropical Depression Carina moved past the Balintang Channel and started to approach the Bashi Channel between the Philippines and Taiwan early Tuesday morning, July 14.

In a bulletin issued 8 am on Tuesday, the Philippine Atmospheric, Geophysical, and Astronomical Services Administration (PAGASA) said Carina is already 95 kilometers west northwest of Basco, Batanes.

The tropical depression is now moving northwest at 25 kilometers per hour (km/h).

So far, Carina has maintained its strength, with maximum winds of 45 km/h and gustiness of up to 55 km/h. PAGASA said it could weaken into a low pressure area on Tuesday or on Wednesday morning, July 15. (READ: FAST FACTS: Tropical cyclones, rainfall advisories)

Only the province of Batanes remains under Signal No. 1 as of Tuesday morning. (READ: Why is it now called tropical cyclone ‘wind’ – and not ‘warning’ – signals?)

Batanes, the Babuyan Islands, and Ilocos Norte will also have scattered light to moderate rain on Tuesday. PAGASA warned that the rain could become heavy at times, which may cause floods and landslides.

The state weather bureau added that moderate to rough seas will be experienced in the seaboards of Northern Luzon in the next 24 hours. Waves could reach 1.2 to 3.1 meters high, which may be risky for small vessels.

Image from PAGASA

Carina is the Philippines’ 3rd tropical cyclone for 2020, after Typhoon Ambo (Vongfong) in May and Tropical Storm Butchoy (Nuri) in June.

An average of 20 tropical cyclones form within or enter the Philippine Area of Responsibility (PAR) each year. Only around half of these make landfall. (READ: LIST: PAGASA’s names for tropical cyclones in 2020)

In PAGASA’s climate outlook, it gave the following estimates for the number of tropical cyclones inside PAR in the next 6 months:

• July – 2 to 4
• August – 2 or 3
• September – 2 or 3
• October – 2 or 3
• November – 1 or 2
• December – 1 or 2

PAGASA declared the start of the rainy season on June 12. – Rappler.com