Typhoon Mindulle weakened further outside the Philippine Area of Responsibility (PAR) on Monday morning, September 27, though it is expected to re-intensify in the evening.

As of Monday morning, Mindulle had maximum sustained winds of 175 kilometers per hour and gustiness of up to 215 km/h.

The Philippine Atmospheric, Geophysical, and Astronomical Services Administration (PAGASA) earlier said the typhoon was weakening as it was undergoing an eyewall replacement cycle.

On the World Meteorological Organization website, it is explained that “eyewall replacement cycles occur when a second concentric eyewall forms around the original and eventually overtakes it.” The eyewall refers to “an organized band of clouds that immediately surround the center or eye” of a tropical cyclone.

Mindulle was last spotted 1,590 kilometers east of extreme Northern Luzon, slowly moving north.

PAGASA said the typhoon will begin heading northwest on Monday until Tuesday morning, September 28, then turn north northwest on Tuesday evening until Wednesday morning, September 29. It will also gradually speed up.

Based on Mindulle’s current movement, it could enter PAR on Tuesday, and would be given the local name Lannie. (READ: LIST: PAGASA’s names for tropical cyclones in 2021)

Also by Tuesday, the typhoon could reach a peak intensity of around 205 to 215 km/h.

Fortunately, Mindulle or the potential Lannie will only stay briefly inside PAR, with its exit seen on Wednesday. It is also unlikely to directly affect weather in the country, since it will only move along the PAR eastern boundary.

But PAGASA said the typhoon may cause moderate to rough waters in the northern and eastern seaboards of Luzon beginning Monday evening or Tuesday. Travel will be risky for small vessels.

The Philippines has had 11 tropical cyclones in 2021. The yearly average is 20. (READ: FAST FACTS: Tropical cyclones, rainfall advisories) – Rappler.com