Disaster Fact Checks

FACT CHECK: No reports of LPA turning into super typhoon up until November 16


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FACT CHECK: No reports of LPA turning into super typhoon up until November 16
In its daily forecasts, PAGASA has reported that the LPA that it is currently monitoring outside the Philippine Area of Responsibility has a low chance of developing into a typhoon

Claim: A low pressure area (LPA) is set to enter the Philippine Area of Responsibility (PAR) on November 18 and is expected to develop into a super typhoon, according to Facebook user Cam Tou Mie.

Rating: FALSE

Why we fact-checked this: The post containing the claim was made on November 14 and has reached 299 reactions, 17 comments, and 2,700 shares as of writing. The Facebook account that made the claim also has 5,400 followers.

The first part of the post reads:

Pangandam mo daan tanan (Get ready everyone), LPA will enter Philippine Area of Responsibility on Thursday, November 16, and is predicted by PAGASA to reach 185 km of sustained winds. Meaning, possible it will develop into typhoon to super typhoon during landfall on Saturday, November 18.” 

The facts: The Philippine Atmospheric, Geophysical, and Astronomical Services Administration (PAGASA) is currently monitoring the LPA located 1,220 kilometers east of northeastern Mindanao. However, the weather bureau said in its 4 am weather forecast on November 16 that the LPA has a low chance of developing into a typhoon within the next 48 hours, much less a super typhoon. 

PAGASA said it is possible for the weather disturbance to enter the PAR in the next 24 hours and may bring heavy rains to Eastern Visayas and CARAGA on Sunday, November 19.

In its daily weather forecast, the agency said that the shear line is affecting Southern Luzon, while the northeast monsoon will affect Northern and Central Luzon. 

Warnings against fake news: On November 15, the Cebuano news agency The Freeman released a report warning people against fake news amid circulating social media claims of a strong typhoon, comparable to Super Typhoon Odette (Rai), heading to Cebu next week.

The PAGASA-Visayas Regional Services Division told The Freeman that even if the LPA develops into a tropical depression, it will not have the same strength as Odette, which devastated Cebu in December 2021. (READ: Typhoon Odette in Cebu: Queen City in ruins)

For weather updates: For legitimate weather updates, visit PAGASA’s official website, Twitter page, and YouTube channel. Get updates too via Rappler’s Philippine weather page. Katarina Ruflo/Rappler.com

Katarina Ruflo is a graduate of Rappler’s fact-checking mentorship program. This fact check was reviewed by a member of Rappler’s research team and a senior editor. Learn more about Rappler’s fact-checking mentorship program here.

Keep us aware of suspicious Facebook pages, groups, accounts, websites, articles, or photos in your network by contacting us at factcheck@rappler.com. Let us battle disinformation one Fact Check at a time.

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