MANILA, Philippines – What’s the probability of having a full turnout in voting precincts? Very improbable, experts say, because this defies the national average which hit about 75% in 2010 and 84% this year. But on May 9, 2016, 116 polling precincts from 18 provinces still posted 100% voter turnout rates.
This is based on the partial and unofficial results from the Commission on Elections transparency server, as of 10:50 am Thursday, May 12.
All in all, 36,236 registered voters turned up in precincts that reported a 100% turnout. Of this total, Liberal Party standard-bearer Mar Roxas won with 16,381 votes followed by Senator Grace Poe with some 10,836 votes.
Former Davao City Mayor and presumptive president Rodrigo Duterte won only 1,293 of the votes in these full turnout precincts.
But nationwide, 95.72% of precincts have reported a comfortable lead for Duterte who garnered 15.89 million votes as of 9:56 am, Thursday, May 12.
While it seems that a 100% turnout in certain precincts shows an increased diligence in fulfilling civic duties, experts view it with suspicion, a possible indicator of poll cheating.
The table below shows the list of precincts that achieved a 100% voter turnout with votes garnered for each presidential candidate. Those highlighted in orange are the winning votes.
During the 2010 elections that elected President Benigno Aquino III, clustered precincts with a 100% turnout numbered 43 in at least 7 provinces: Kalinga, Samar, Lanao del Norte, Lanao del Sur, Maguindanao, Sulu, and Tawi-Tawi. The last 4 provinces belong to the Autonomous Region in Muslimn Mindanao (ARMM).
In addition to the 7 provinces in 2010, Apayao, Basilan, Cebu, Cotabato, Sultan Kudarat, and Zamboanga del Sur also delivered a full turnout in the 2013 elections. That same year, Samar was off the list. The 25,649 voters registered in at least 70 precincts in 12 provinces trooped to the polls.
For this year’s election, not all voters from Apayao, Sultan Kudarat, and Zamboanga del Sur showed up in their precincts as in the last senatorial elections. The provinces of Leyte, Agusan del Norte, Ilocos Sur, Isabela, Ifugao, Benguet, Bohol and Aurora are among those that reported a 100% voter turnout.
Compared to 2013, precincts that reported a 100% voter turnout are 40% more this year. (READ: Signs of cheating? Unusually high voter turnouts in 2010, 2013)
Nationwide, voter turnout was 74.99% in 2010 and 77.31% in 2013.
Surprising returns in 2016
Of the 116 precincts that delivered a 100% voter turnout, Roxas won in 65 precincts while Poe captured 40 of them.
Surprisingly, Duterte won in only one of the precincts in Lanao del Norte that posted a complete turnout. He garnered all 326 votes in that polling precinct, while Poe got the majority of votes in other precincts. (See table above to view breakdown of votes per candidate in polling precincts)
In ARMM, Roxas won in the Basilan, Lanao del Sur, and Tawi-Tawi precincts that reported a full turnout. In Maguindanao and Sulu, Poe votes prevailed among the full turnout precincts.
The results are suprising as the April 27 to May 1 Standard Poll before the May 9 polls showed a glaring voter preference for Duterte. It surged from 35% to 47%. Preference for Roxas was at 15% compared to Poe’s 13%.
While President Aquino won in ARMM in 2010, Roxas did not when he ran for vice president in the same year. It was Vice President Jejomar Binay who captured the vote of the region at the time.
This year’s turnout, at least in those areas where all registered voters participated, shows that the tables have turned. (READ: Will voting trends in ARMM hold in 2016?)
In Cebu, 3 precincts hit complete turnouts. Two were won by Binay while the other one was for Roxas.
Late into the campaign, support for Binay and his party United Nationalist Alliance was dropped by influential local party 1-Cebu due to “unappreciated loyalty.” 1-Cebu eventually showed support for Duterte.
During the 2010 elections, Roxas won by a landslide in vote-rich Cebu, garnering 814,397 votes.
For this year, in Ifugao, one precinct posted a 100% voter turnout but had only 4 registered voters. Based on the data, 3 voted for Poe while the other one voted for Duterte.
Do you know of other precincts that defied the national average and reported a 100% voter turnout? – with research by Wayne Manuel/Rappler.com