5 Senate bets big losers in survey

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Pimentel, Honasan, Cayetano, Enrile and Binay's numbers dropped in the April 2013 Pulse Asia survey; Hontiveros biggest gainer

MANILA, Philippines – With less than a month to go before the polls, support for senatorial bets remained unchanged except for 5 candidates whose numbers plunged in a new survey. 

An April 20 to 22 Pulse Asia survey showed a decline in the voting preference for the following:

The decline in their voting preference brought down their ranking, except for Enrile who retained the 11th-16th spot. Enrile’s numbers continued to plunge. He was the 3rd biggest loser in the March survey

The drop in Cayetano’s numbers lowered his ranking from 2nd to 3rd in March to 3rd to 7th in the April survey. See the results of the March survey here. 

Former censors chief Grace Poe, previously at 4th to 10th place, now occupies the 3rd to 4th spot, yet her voting preference went up by just .3 percentage points, still within the +/-2 error margin.

Pulse Asia released the survey results on Tuesday, April 30, or 13 days before the May 13 elections. 

Hontiveros, Magsaysay make it to winning list 

Besides Poe, only former Akbayan Rep Risa Hontiveros’ numbers went up (by 1.5 percentage points) among the 16 senatorial bets who have a statistical chance of winning.

Hontiveros was the survey’s biggest gainer but the increase in her numbers is still within the margin of error. The is the first time she broke into the list of potential winners.

Leading the 16 bets are re-electionist Sen Loren Legarda (51.5%) and Francis Escudero (48.3%), tied in 1st-2nd place.

Poe (42.4%) came in at 3rd-4th followed by Cayetano (40%) at 3rd-7th.

At 4th-9th place is former Las Piñas Rep Cynthia Villar (37.7%) followed by Sen Antonio Trillanes IV (35.8%) who ranked 4th-10th.

Bam Aquino (35.7%) came in at 4th-10th place. Tied in rank 5-11 are San Juan Rep JV Ejercito (34.7%) and Binay (34.6%) whose ranking dropped from 4th-11th in March.

Coming in at 6th-12th is Pimentel (32.7%), who registered the biggest decline. He was at 4th-10th place last month.

Aurora Rep Juan Edgardo “Sonny” Angara (31.2%) is at 8th-14th place followed by resigned Sen Juan Miguel Zubiri (29.7%).

Tied in 11th-16th are Honasan (27.9%) and Enrile (27.2%). Honasan’s ranking went down from 6th-14th in March.

Rounding up the top 16 are Hontiveros (25.8%) and former Sen Ramon “Jun” Magsaysay (25.6%). This is also Magsaysay’s first time to break into the winning list in the Pulse Asia survey. In other surveys, the former senator has been part of the probable winners. 

11-5 for Team PNoy

The survey showed an 11-5 combination for the administration Team PNoy and the opposition United Nationalist Alliance (UNA).

The 11 from Team PNoy are Legarda, Escudero, Poe, Cayetano, Villar, Trillanes, Aquino, Pimentel, Angara, Hontiveros and Magsaysay.

The 5 from UNA are Ejercito, Binay, Zubiri, Honasan and Enrile.

Pimentel questioned the poll. 

“A drop of 9 percentage points in one month without committing any blunder? How could that be possible? I even appeared in televised debates, on frontpages, even got endorsed by a big movement (White Vote).”

“Hence you better ask Pulse Asia to explain. I will continue to campaign the way I’ve been doing it. The fault may be with Pulse, not with me.” 

Hontiveros though welcomed the survey results. 

“I’m so happy but still having a hard time. In the homestretch, we will really go for the win. We will take and improve the chances. It’s an uphill battle,” she said in a text message. 

Outside of the probable winners’ circle, 4 other candidates also registered a drop in voting preference: 

  • Former Sen Richard Gordon (-8.3 percentage points)
  • Former Sen Jamby Madrigal (-6.9 percentage points)
  • Former Tarlac Gov Tingting Cojuangco (-5.4 percentage points)
  • Former Senate President Ernesto Maceda (-5 percentage points) 

The poll had 1,800 respondents and a +/-2 margin of error. 

Among the developments that occurred while the survey was conducted were:

  • Continuing tension from the Sabah standoff
  • Calls for the resignation of customs chief Ruffy Biazon
  • Supreme Court decision rejecting the petition to lift the suspension of the Reproductive Health law implementation. Hontiveros was a petitioner.
  • Comelec chief Sixto Brillantes Jr’s decision not to push through with his resignation plan
  • Appointment of two new Comelec commissioners
  • Reports of election-related violence including the ambush on Gingoog Mayor Ruth Guingona
  • Record-breaking performance of the Philippine Stock Exchange
  • Increase in electricity bills of Meralco consumers.

The Social Weather Stations (SWS) released its April survey last week, with Binay and Villar breaking into the top 3. – Rappler.com

Pulse Asia Survey: Senatorial Preferences, April 2013

More from Rappler’s 2013 Philippine elections coverage:

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