World faces 2.8ºC rise after ‘woefully inadequate’ climate pledges, UN says

LONDON, United Kingdom – Government pledges to cut greenhouse gas emissions put the planet on track for an average 2.8 degrees Celsius temperature rise this century, after “woefully inadequate” progress to curb warming, a United Nations report said.

Representatives from around the world will meet from November 6-18 at the COP27 climate talks in Egypt to try to agree pledges to limit warming to below 2ºC above pre-industrial levels and ideally to 1.5ºC (2.7 degrees Fahrenheit).

So far, additional commitments since the previous UN climate conference in Scotland last year remove 0.5 gigatonnes of carbon dioxide equivalent greenhouse gas emissions (GtCO2e), less than 1% of estimated global emissions in 2030, the annual UN Environment Programme (UNEP) report showed on Thursday, October 27.

Policies in place, without strengthening, will likely lead to a 2.8ºC rise in temperature by the end of the century, 0.1ºC higher than was estimated last year.

“We had our chance to make incremental changes, but that time is over. Only a root-and-branch transformation of our economies and societies can save us from accelerating climate disaster,” UNEP executive director Inger Andersen said.

Global emissions in 2030 are estimated at 58 GtCO2e based on current policies. The gap between pledges and limiting warming to 2ºC is 15 GtCO2e a year and for 1.5ºC it is 23 GtCO2e a year.

To limit warming to 1.5ºC, annual emissions must be reduced by 45% compared with emissions forecasts under current policies currently in just eight years and transforming the global economy to low-carbon will require investment of at least $4-$6 trillion a year, the report said.

According to a separate UN report earlier this week analyzing the latest pledges submitted by countries, 2.5ºC of warming is likely by the end of the century.

On Wednesday, October 26, the World Meteorological Organization said greenhouse gas concentrations climbed at above-average rates to new records last year. – Rappler.com