Experts studying the coronavirus pandemic in the country urged the government to consider imposing stricter quarantine measures if the travel bubble within Metro Manila and nearby provinces fails to curb COVID-19 transmissions in the next couple of weeks.

The Octa Research Group said this during an interview with state-run PTV-4 on Wednesday, March 24, when asked to assess the so-called “NCR Plus” bubble setup spanning the National Capital Region, Bulacan, Cavite, Laguna, and Rizal.

“We will know within one to two weeks kung talagang enough na ‘yan (if the bubble setup is enough), because if it’s not enough, we will need additional restrictions,” said OCTA group research fellow Dr Guido David.

The group pointed out that the government must look into whether the Philippines’ current reproduction number of about 1.9 will slow down in the next two weeks. The reproduction number refers to the number of people one COVID-19 case can infect.

“If ma-reduce natin to 1.5 ‘yung reproduction number natin within two weeks, we are on track na ma-reverse natin, magkaroon tayo ng downward trend, marereduce natin to 1 ‘yung reproduction number after 4 weeks,” David said.

(If we can reduce the reproduction number to 1.5 within two weeks, we are on track to reverse the upward trend in new cases, and reduce the reproduction number to 1 after 4 weeks.)

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Experts have reiterated that the target is to bring the reproduction number to at least 1 for the pandemic to be considered as “manageable.”

Octa Research fellow Professor Ranjit Rye said in Filipino that if the reproduction number is still high after next week, “we may have to consider stricter quarantine classification.”

David akso said that daily new coronavirus cases can still surpass the 5,000-mark after a month under that “realistic best case scenario.” Before the spike in new cases in March, daily new cases averaged 1,817 in February.

“We will still see a peak of 6,000 cases in NCR per day, but under the best case scenario, we can limit this to 5,000 cases,” David added in a mix of English and Filipino.

Octa called on the public to give “NCR Plus” a chance, and comply with stricter quarantine guidelines.

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“We’re trying to make this bubble work. But it will require high degree of cooperation between civil society, the private sector, and government,” said Rye.

The Philippines’ highest single-day spike in cases, so far, was 8,019 recorded on Monday, March 22. – Rappler.com