FACT CHECK: No prediction of looming magnitude 7 earthquake to hit Bohol

Claim: Self-proclaimed psychic Rudy Baldwin claims that a magnitude 7 earthquake will hit the island of Bohol. 

Rating: FALSE

Why we fact-checked this: The claim was made by a popular Filipino figure with 4.1 million followers on Facebook. The post dated June 9 has 8,800 reactions, 5,600 shares, and 1,800 comments as of writing.

On July 4, Baldwin reshared the post, which read: “BOHOL MAGING HANDA LAMANG DAHIL ME NAKITA AKONG LINDOL NA MALAKAS ITO. MALAKAS NA HALOS ME MGA GUSALI ANG NASISIRA. AABOT ITO NG 7 MAGNITUDE ANG LAKAS. MAS MALAKAS ITO KISA MGA NAKARAANG LINDOL NA NARANASAN.”

(Bohol, be prepared because I saw a strong earthquake. It was so strong that buildings were almost destroyed. It would reach magnitude 7. It was stronger than previous earthquakes.)

The bottom line: As stated in previous fact-checks on supposed earthquake predictions, there is currently no way to make accurate predictions specifying the exact date, time, and place where an earthquake would occur.

The Philippine Institute of Volcanology and Seismology (Phivolcs) has previously said that at present, “no one has the capacity to determine when an earthquake will strike, at what precise magnitude, and where the strong one will hit.” 

The United States Geological Survey (USGS) also said that neither they nor other scientists know how to predict major earthquakes. 

What seismologists can do is to make estimates and calculate the probability of earthquakes happening in a specific area within a certain period of time, but these probabilities cannot accurately predict the exact time an earthquake would occur.

Phivolcs has repeatedly issued advisories about earthquake rumors and predictions. In 2019, in response to a rumor about a 7.1 magnitude earthquake hitting Metro Manila, Phivolcs reminded the public that there is currently no technology available in the world that is capable of determining when a strong earthquake would occur. 

Earthquake predictions: According to the USGS, earthquake predictions have to satisfy three elements: the date and time, location, and magnitude of an earthquake. The Facebook post fails to satisfy these criteria, as it does not specify the location of the earthquake other than the general area, and provides no specific details on the date and time.

Rappler fact-checks: Rudy Baldwin, the poster of the claim, has been repeatedly fact-checked by Rappler before for making “predictions” of looming disasters and calamities: 

• FACT CHECK:  No prediction of earthquakes happening ‘in the coming days’
• FACT CHECK:  No prediction of imminent volcanic eruption in Bukidnon

– Katarina Ruflo/Rappler.com

Katarina Ruflo is a graduate of Rappler’s fact-checking mentorship program. This fact check was reviewed by a member of Rappler’s research team and a senior editor. Learn more about Rappler’s fact-checking mentorship program here.

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