Winston Churchill once said, “The further backward you look, the further forward you can see.”

This is exactly what I thought we are to talk about today. We’ll go back in time where the market started this year, up to the present where we are now – obviously, to see our path into the future.  

Come to think of it, it’s time to look back and reassess our performance record to prepare for the next six months. The month of June ended last week. It also marked the completion of the first semester of the current trading year. A review is, therefore, in order as a matter of good business practice and prudent planning policy.  

I may start, however, with the present before taking you back in the past, and bring you back to the present. The trading results left behind by the market is such a conundrum. Hopefully, this will allow us a better grasp on the market’s manifested – unpredictable, fickle and changing in nature – performance in the last six months.   

To start with, the market closed last week at 6,430.58. It showed a weekly gain of 74.52points or 1.17%.  Foreign investors ended as net buyers on a market participation equivalent to 53.59% of total market transactions. Average daily value traded was equivalent to P4.99 billion. YTD average daily value traded at this time was equivalent to P6.98 billion.

All counters registered gains, except for the property sector, which showed a slight loss of 4.44 points or 0.17%.  The property sector index showed a decline in its index level and fall in its value turnover.

Interestingly, the holdings firms and financial sectors showed a respective decline in value turnover equivalent to 8.27% and 16.01%, despite the gains in their index levels.  There were fundamental reasons and events that triggered such trading results.  But being buried now deep into the file of news reports that we have accumulated at this point, we may find a better source of explanation through the technical data left behind resulting from the state of balance between the bulls (buyers) and bears (sellers) in the market.  

The fall in the value turnover but rise in the index level in the holdings firm and financial sectors can be explained also as follows: The bulls have the appetite, but not as strong, and the bears still have the upper hand to dictate prices, so to speak.  

First half market performance

May I warn you that the review presentation on the previous half of the year is boring. But this how it is in stock trading. It is routinely dull and boring, except when you are in the cusp of either losing or making money.    

To continue, the market closed at 6,566.39 at the end of trading in December 2022, down by 7.8% on a YTD basis. Only two of the six sectors of the market registered a gain. These were the financial and mining & oil sectors, with a respective gain of 2.4% and 12.6%. The rest were as follows: Industrial sector, down 10.1%; holdings firm sector, down 5.5%; property, down 9.0%; and services sector, down 17.7%.  

Total market capitalization was P16.56 trillion, down 8.4%, while total capital raised year-on-year (YOY) was also down 36.4% at P99.17 billion.  Average daily value traded for the year was P7.30 billion, down 18.9%.  Foreign investors were net sellers with a total transaction of P68.05 billion.

After three months, at the end of March 31, the market closed at 6,499.68, down by 1.0% on a YTD basis. Performance in the six sectors of the market improved, as follows: financial sector, up 10.1%; industrial sector, up 0.5%; holdings firm sector, down 2.7%; property sector, down 8.5%; services sector, up 1.8%; and mining & oil sector, up 2.0%.  

Total market capitalization was P16.48 trillion, down 0.5%, while total capital raised YOY was up 111.16% at P20.45 billion. Average daily value traded for the year was P7.68 billion, up 5.2%.  Foreign investors were net sellers with a total transaction of P27.40 billion.

At the end of June 30, after another three months, the statistics are as follows: The market closed at 6,468.67, down by 1.5% on a YTD basis.  Performance in the six sectors of the market deteriorated with only one registering a gain, as follows: financial sector, up 12.3%; industrial sector, down 1.3%; holdings firm sector, down 0.7%; property sector, down 11.0%; services sector, down 4.2%; and mining & oil sector, down 8.3%.  

Total market capitalization was P16.6 trillion, up 0.3%, while total capital raised for the year was down 30.8% at P20.45 billion. Average daily value traded for the year was P7.68 billion, up 5.2%.  Foreign investors were net sellers with a total transaction of P27.40 billion.

The way the market started the year, together with how it performed in the last six months as captured in the first two quarterly summary report reproduced in this write up, it seems that it hardly moved up. In fact, per trading results as of the end of June 30, it is actually down 98.32 points or -1.50% on a YTD basis.  

Using the market’s trading results for the last week of June as a reference, the market will continue to be as weak as the current status of the property sector but may display some semblance of strength from time to time. Still, it’s far from being strong enough to move up.

The market’s general sideways movement is also some kind of consolidation. This may continue to go on but the market’s true direction may show up before the end of the year.  Exactly when?  Abangan. – Rappler.com  

The article has been prepared for general circulation for the reading public and must not be construed as an offer, or solicitation of an offer to buy or sell any securities or financial instruments whether referred to herein or otherwise. Moreover, the public should be aware that the writer or any investing parties mentioned in the column may have a conflict of interest that could affect the objectivity of their reported or mentioned investment activity.   You may reach the writer at densomera@yahoo.com.