The newly developed Tropical Depression Nika and the southwest monsoon or hanging habagat will combine to bring even more rain to Luzon, the state weather bureau warned on Sunday evening, October 11.

Nika, which was the low pressure area (LPA) off Ilocos Sur, had developed at 8 pm on Sunday. As an LPA, it had already caused rain in parts of the country.

The Philippine Atmospheric, Geophysical, and Astronomical Services Administration (PAGASA) said in a bulletin at 11 pm on Sunday that Nika is located 200 kilometers west southwest of Sinait, Ilocos Sur, over the West Philippine Sea.

The tropical depression is moving west at 15 kilometers per hour (km/h), which means it is moving away from land.

At the moment, Nika has maximum winds of 55 km/h and gustiness of up to 70 km/h. But PAGASA said it will continuously intensify over the next two days, possibly reaching tropical storm category within 24 hours and severe tropical storm category by Tuesday evening, October 13.

PAGASA released the following rainfall forecast for Monday, October 12, due to Nika and the southwest monsoon:

Moderate to heavy rain

• southern part of Isabela
• Quirino
• Nueva Vizcaya
• Mountain Province
• Ifugao
• Benguet
• La Union
• Pangasinan
• Central Luzon
• Rizal
• northern part of Quezon including Polillo Island

Light to moderate rain, with at times heavy rain

• rest of Luzon

Residents were advised to watch out for possible floods and landslides. (READ: FAST FACTS: Tropical cyclones, rainfall advisories)

Meanwhile, there are no tropical cyclone wind signals in effect. But PAGASA said “the enhancement of both the southwest monsoon and the northeasterly surface windflow will bring strong winds with occasional gusts” to the northern and western parts of Luzon, especially in coastal and mountainous areas.

A gale warning was also issued for the seaboards of these areas:

• Batanes
• Ilocos Norte
• Ilocos Sur
• La Union
• Pangasinan
• Zambales
• northern seaboards of Cagayan including Babuyan Islands

Seas will be rough to very rough, making travel risky.

In the other seaboards of Luzon, seas will be rough to moderate. PAGASA said small vessels must take precautionary measures.

If Nika maintains its speed, it could already exit the Philippine Area of Responsibility (PAR) either Monday morning or afternoon.

PAGASA said Nika could turn more toward the northwest on Tuesday evening, then make landfall in the Chinese province of Hainan on Wednesday morning, October 14.

Image from PAGASA

Nika is the Philippines’ 14th tropical cyclone for 2020, and the 1st for October.

An average of 20 tropical cyclones form within or enter PAR each year. (READ: LIST: PAGASA’s names for tropical cyclones in 2020)

PAGASA gave the following estimates for the number of tropical cyclones inside PAR in the next 6 months:

• October 2020 – 2 or 3
• November 2020 – 1 or 2
• December 2020 – 1 or 2
• January 2021 – 1 or 2
• February 2021 – 0 or 1
• March 2021 – 0 or 1

Last October 2, the state weather bureau warned Filipinos to expect more rain in the coming months due to the onset of La Niña. – Rappler.com