Tropical Depression Vicky continued to move over the Sulu Sea early Saturday morning, December 19, and was already nearing the Cagayancillo Islands, which are part of the province of Palawan.

In a bulletin issued 8 am on Saturday, the Philippine Atmospheric, Geophysical, and Astronomical Services Administration (PAGASA) said Vicky was located 240 kilometers west of Dipolog City, Zamboanga del Norte, or 285 kilometers east southeast of Puerto Princesa City, Palawan.

The tropical depression continues to move west toward Palawan at 25 kilometers per hour (km/h).

PAGASA said Vicky is expected to make another landfall in the northern or central part of Palawan on Saturday afternoon or evening, then emerge over the West Philippine Sea.

The tropical depression made its 1st landfall in Baganga, Davao Oriental, at 2 pm on Friday, December 18, then crossed parts of Mindanao before emerging over the Bohol Sea and subsequently the Sulu Sea.

As of early Saturday morning, Vicky maintained its maximum sustained winds of 45 km/h and gustiness of up to 55 km/h. It is likely to stay a tropical depression when it hits Palawan, but it is seen to intensify into a tropical storm once it reaches the West Philippine Sea. (READ: FAST FACTS: Tropical cyclones, rainfall advisories)

Rain from Vicky and the tail-end of a frontal system will persist in parts of the country, so affected areas must stay on alert for floods and landslides. This is PAGASA’s latest rainfall outlook for the weekend:

Saturday, December 19

Moderate to heavy rain, with at times intense rain

• Calabarzon
• Bicol
• Aurora
• Oriental Mindoro
• Marinduque
• northern and central parts of Palawan including Calamian, Cuyo, and Cagayancillo Islands
• Visayas
• Dinagat Islands
• Surigao del Norte
• Surigao del Sur
• Agusan del Norte
• Camiguin
• Misamis Oriental

Light to moderate rain, with at times heavy rain

• rest of Central Luzon
• rest of Mimaropa
• mainland Cagayan Valley
• Cordillera Administrative Region
• Metro Manila

Sunday, December 20

Heavy to intense rain

• Bicol
• Quezon
• Aurora
• Isabela
• Quirino
• Nueva Vizcaya

Moderate to heavy rain, with at times intense rain

• rest of mainland Cagayan Valley
• Apayao
• Kalinga
• Mountain Province
• Ifugao
• Oriental Mindoro
• Kalayaan Islands

Light to moderate rain, with at times heavy rain

• rest of Cordillera Administrative Region
• rest of Calabarzon
• rest of Mimaropa
• Metro Manila
• Bulacan
• Eastern Visayas
• Dinagat Islands

In terms of wind, below are the areas covered by Signal No. 1 as of 8 am on Saturday.

• northern and central parts of Palawan (Araceli, Dumaran, Taytay, El Nido, San Vicente, Roxas, Puerto Princesa City, Aborlan, Narra, Quezon, Sofronio Española) including Calamian, Cuyo, Cagayancillo, and Kalayaan Islands
• Negros Oriental
• central and southern parts of Negros Occidental (Bacolod City, La Castellana, Murcia, La Carlota City, Bago City, Pulupandan, Valladolid, Pontevedra, San Enrique, Moises Padilla, Hinigaran, Isabela, Binalbagan, Himamaylan City, Kabankalan City, Ilog, Candoni, Sipalay City, Hinoba-an, Cauayan)
• Guimaras
• southern part of Iloilo (Dumangas, Zarraga, New Lucena, Cabatuan, Maasin, Leganes, Santa Barbara, Pavia, Iloilo City, Oton, San Miguel, Alimodian, Leon, Tigbauan, Tubungan, Guimbal, Igbaras, Miagao, San Joaquin)
• southern part of Antique (Anini-y, Tobias Fornier, Hamtic, Sibalom, San Jose, San Remigio, Patnongon, Belison, Valderrama)
• central part of Zamboanga del Norte (Siayan, Manukan, Jose Dalman, Sindangan, Bacungan, Godod, Liloy, Salug, Tampilisan, Kalawit, Labason, Gutalac, Baliguian, Siocon, President Manuel A. Roxas)
• western part of Zamboanga Sibugay (Tungawan, Roseller Lim, Titay, Ipil, Naga, Kabasalan)

PAGASA said areas under Signal No. 1 will have “strong breeze to near gale conditions.” But it noted that gusty conditions are also likely in most parts of Luzon and the Visayas which are not under Signal No. 1, due to the surge of the northeast monsoon or hanging amihan. Coastal and mountainous areas, most especially, would be affected.

Sea travel remains risky due to Vicky and the surge of the northeast monsoon, too.

Rough to very rough seas (waves 2.5 to 4.5 meters high)

• entire seaboards of Northern Luzon
• seaboard of Aurora
• eastern seaboard of Quezon including Polillo Islands
• seaboard of Camarines Norte
• northern seaboard of Camarines Sur
• northern and eastern seaboards of Catanduanes
• eastern seaboard of Albay including Rapu-Rapu Islands
• eastern seaboard of Sorsogon
• northern and eastern seaboards of Northern Samar
• eastern seaboard of Eastern Samar including Homonhon Island
• eastern seaboard of Dinagat Islands
• eastern seaboard of Surigao del Norte
• seaboard of Surigao del Sur
• eastern seaboard of Davao Oriental

Moderate to rough seas (waves 2 to 4 meters high)

• coastal waters of areas under Signal No. 1
• seaboards of Agusan del Norte, Camiguin, Misamis Oriental, Lanao del Norte, and Misamis Occidental
• remaining seaboards of Luzon, Visayas, Surigao del Norte, Dinagat Islands, and Zamboanga del Norte

Vicky is expected to leave the Philippine Area of Responsibility (PAR) on Sunday afternoon or evening, December 20.

Image from PAGASA

Vicky is the Philippines’ 22nd tropical cyclone for 2020 – exceeding the yearly average of 20 – and the 1st for December. (READ: LIST: PAGASA’s names for tropical cyclones in 2020)

For December 2020 and January-June 2021, these are PAGASA’s estimates for tropical cyclones inside PAR:

• December 2020 – 1 or 2
• January 2021 – 0 or 1
• February 2021 – 0 or 1
• March 2021 – 0 or 1
• April 2021 – 0 or 1
• May 2021 – 0 or 1
• June 2021 – 1 or 2

La Niña has been underway since October, causing more rain than usual in the country. – Rappler.com